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Bias in Dynamic Panel Estimation with Fixed Effects, Incidental Trends and Cross Section Dependence

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Author Info
Peter C.B. Phillips () (Cowles Foundation, Yale University)
Donggyu Sul (Dept. Economics, Univ. of Auckland)

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Abstract

Explicit asymptotic bias formulae are given for dynamic panel regression estimators as the cross section sample size N approaching infinity. The results extend earlier work by Nickell (1981) and later authors in several directions that are relevant for practical work, including models with unit roots, deterministic trends, predetermined and exogenous regressors, and errors that may be cross sectionally dependent. The asymptotic bias is found to be so large when incidental linear trends are fitted and the time series sample size is small that it changes the sign of the autoregressive coe.cient. Another finding of interest is that, when there is cross section error dependence, the probability limit of the dynamic panel regression estimator is a random variable rather than a constant, which helps to explain the substantial variability observed in dynamic panel estimates when there is cross section dependence even in situations where N is very large. Some proposals for bias correction are suggested and finite sample performance is analyzed in simulations.

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File URL: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cd/d14a/d1438.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Cowles Foundation, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1438.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2003
Date of revision: Jun 2004
Publication status: Published in Journal of Econometrics, (March 2007), 137(1): 162-188
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1438

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Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

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Related research
Keywords: Autoregression Bias Cross section dependence Dynamic factors Dynamic panel estimation Incidental trends Panel unit root

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Peter C.B. Phillips & Victor Solo, 1989. "Asymptotics for Linear Processes," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 932, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  2. Orcutt, Guy H & Winokur, Herbert S, Jr, 1969. "First Order Autoregression: Inference, Estimation, and Prediction," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(1), pages 1-14, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. MOON, Hyungsik Roger & PERRON, Benoit., 2002. "Testing for a Unit Root in Panels with Dynamic Factors," Cahiers de recherche 2002-18, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Arellano, M. & Honore, B., 2000. "Panel Data Models: Some Recent Developments," Papers 0016, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
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  5. Moon, Hyungsik R. & Phillips, Peter C.B., 2000. "Estimation Of Autoregressive Roots Near Unity Using Panel Data," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(06), pages 927-997, December. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Hyungsik R. Moon & Peter C.B. Phillips, . "Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Panels with Incidental Trends," University of California Santa Barbara - Department of Economics 6-99, California Santa Barbara - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Hyungsik Roger Moon & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2003. "GMM Estimation of Autoregressive Roots Near Unity with Panel Data," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1390, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Harris, R. & Tzavalis, E., 1996. "Inference for Unit Roots in Dynamic Panels," Discussion Papers 96/04, University of Exeter, School of Business and Economics.
  9. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model: Identification And Estimation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 540-554, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-26, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Jinyong Hahn & Jerry Hausman & Guido Kuersteiner, 2005. "Bias Corrected Instrumental Variables Estimation for Dynamic Panel Models with Fixed E¤ects," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-024, Boston University - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Hugo Kruiniger, 2000. "GMM Estimation of Dynamic Panel Data Models with Persistent Data," Working Papers 428, Queen Mary, University of London, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  13. Kiviet, Jan F., 1995. "On bias, inconsistency, and efficiency of various estimators in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 53-78, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "A panel project on purchasing power parity: Mean reversion within and between countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-2), pages 209-224, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Harris, Richard D. F. & Tzavalis, Elias, 1999. "Inference for unit roots in dynamic panels where the time dimension is fixed," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 201-226, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Peter C.B.Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2002. "Dynamic Panel Estimation and Homogeneity Testing Under Cross Section Dependence," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1362, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  17. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Erik Hjalmarsson, 2006. "Predictive regressions with panel data," International Finance Discussion Papers 869, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  2. Kazuhiko Hayakawa, 2007. "Dynamic Panel Data Models with Cross Section Dependence and Heteroscedasticity," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d07-212, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. [Downloadable!]
  3. He, Changli & Sandberg, Rickard, 2005. "Testing for Unit Roots in Nonlinear Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 582, Stockholm School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Christian Gourieroux & Peter C. B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2006. "Indirect Inference for Dynamic Panel Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1550, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  5. Herbert Brücker & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2005. "On the Estimation and Forecasting of International Migration: How Relevant Is Heterogeneity Across Countries?," IZA Discussion Papers 1710, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Donggyu Sul, 2005. "New Panel Unit Root Tests under Cross Section Dependence for Practitioners," Econometrics 0506010, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  7. Kazuhiko Hayakawa, 2006. "A Note on Bias in First-Differenced AR(1) Models," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(27), pages 1-10. [Downloadable!]
  8. Jinyong Hahn & Hyungsik Roger Moon, 2004. "Reducing Bias of MLE in a Dynamic Panel Model," IEPR Working Papers 04.5, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Giannetti, C., 2008. "Unit Roots and the Dynamics of Market Shares: An Analysis Using Italian Banking Micro-Panel," Discussion Paper 2008-44, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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