Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Aggregate vs Disaggregate Data Analysis - A Paradox in the Estimation of Money Demand Function of Japan Under the Low Interest Rate Policy

Contents:

Author Info

  • Cheng Hsiao

    (Department of Economics, University of Southern California)

  • Yan Shen

    (Department of Economics, University of Southern California)

  • Hiroshi Fujiki

    (Institute of Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan)

Abstract

We investigate the issue of whether there was a stable money demand function for Japan in 1990's using both aggregate and disaggregate time series data. The aggregate data appears to support the contention that there was no stable money demand function. The disaggregate data shows that there was a stable money demand function. Neither was there any indication of the presence of liquidity trap. Possible sources of discrepancy are explored and the diametrically opposite results between the aggregate and disaggregate analysis are attributed to the neglect of heterogeneity among micro units. We also conduct simulation analysis to highlight the importance of paying proper attention to heterogeneity among micro units for macro policy analysis and prediction.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://econpapers.repec.org/cpd/2002/106_Shen.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Conferences on Panel Data in its series 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 with number A4-1.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Jan 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cpd:pd2002:a4-1

Contact details of provider:

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Stoker, Thomas M, 1993. "Empirical Approaches to the Problem of Aggregation Over Individuals," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1827-74, December.
  2. Hsiao,Cheng, 2003. "Analysis of Panel Data," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521522717.
  3. Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco, 1999. "Aggregation of linear dynamic microeconomic models," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 131-158, February.
  4. J. A. Hausman, 1976. "Specification Tests in Econometrics," Working papers 185, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  5. Karim Abadir & Gabriel Talmain, 2001. "Aggregation, Persistence and Volatility in a Macromodel," Working Papers w200106, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  6. Poirier, Dale J & Melino, Angelo, 1978. "A Note on the Interpretation of Regression Coefficients within a Class of Truncated Distributions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(5), pages 1207-09, September.
  7. Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco, 1997. "Aggregation and the Microfoundations of Dynamic Macroeconomics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288008, October.
  8. Fujiki, Hiroshi & Hsiao, Cheng & Shen, Yan, 2002. "Is There a Stable Money Demand Function under the Low Interest Rate Policy? A Panel Data Analysis," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 20(2), pages 1-23, April.
  9. Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Sichel, Daniel E., 1990. "The demand for money," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 299-356 Elsevier.
  10. Bennett T. McCallum & Marvin S. Goodfriend, 1987. "Money: Theoretical Analysis of the Demand for Money," NBER Working Papers 2157, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. M. H. Pesaran & R. G. Pierse & M. S. Kumar, 1988. "Econometric Analysis of Aggregation in the Context of Linear Prediction Models," UCLA Economics Working Papers 485, UCLA Department of Economics.
  12. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  13. Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1992. "Estimating Long-Run Relationships From Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9215, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  14. Cheng Hsiao, 1997. "Cointegration and Dynamic Simultaneous Equations Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 647-670, May.
  15. Friedman, Milton & Schwartz, Anna J, 1991. "Alternative Approaches to Analyzing Economic Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 39-49, March.
  16. Zellner, Arnold, 1996. "Models, prior information, and Bayesian analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 51-68, November.
  17. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
  18. Hsiao, Cheng, 1997. "Statistical Properties of the Two-Stage Least Squares Estimator under Cointegration," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(3), pages 385-98, July.
  19. Brewer, K. R. W., 1973. "Some consequences of temporal aggregation and systematic sampling for ARMA and ARMAX models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 133-154, June.
  20. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  21. Lewbel, Arthur, 1994. "Aggregation and Simple Dynamics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 905-18, September.
  22. Bohn, H., 1990. "The Sutainability Of Budget Deficits In A Stochastic Economy," Weiss Center Working Papers 6-90, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
  23. Kajal Lahiri, 2005. "Analysis of Panel Data," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 87(4), pages 1093-1095.
  24. Christensen, Laurits R & Jorgenson, Dale W & Lau, Lawrence J, 1975. "Transcendental Logarithmic Utility Functions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 367-83, June.
  25. Hsiao, Cheng & Hashem Pesaran, M. & Kamil Tahmiscioglu, A., 2002. "Maximum likelihood estimation of fixed effects dynamic panel data models covering short time periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 107-150, July.
  26. Anderson, T. W., 2002. "Reduced rank regression in cointegrated models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 203-216, February.
  27. Ahn, Seung C. & Schmidt, Peter, 1995. "Efficient estimation of models for dynamic panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 5-27, July.
  28. Hashem Pesaran, M., 2003. "Aggregation of linear dynamic models: an application to life-cycle consumption models under habit formation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 383-415, March.
  29. Lewbel, Arthur, 1992. "Aggregation with Log-Linear Models," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(3), pages 635-42, July.
  30. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Jun Nagayasu, 2012. "Financial innovation and regional money," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(35), pages 4617-4629, December.
  2. Fushang Liu & Kajal Lahiri, 2006. "Modelling multi-period inflation uncertainty using a panel of density forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1199-1219.
  3. A. Talha Yalta & Hatice Cakar, 2012. "Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in China: A Reconciliation," Working Papers 1202, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics.
  4. Hiroshi Fujiki & Cheng Hsiao, 2008. "Aggregate and Household Demand for Money: Evidence from Public Opinion Survey on Household Financial Assets and Liabilities," IMES Discussion Paper Series 08-E-17, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  5. repec:wyi:wpaper:001956 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Hashem M. Pesaran & Alexander Chudik, 2011. "Aggregation in Large Dynamic Panels," CESifo Working Paper Series 3346, CESifo Group Munich.
  7. Markus Eberhardt & Francis Teal, . "Aggregation versus Heterogeneity in Cross-Country Growth Empirics," Discussion Papers 11/08, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
  8. Song, Nianfu & Chang, Sun Joseph & Aguilar, Francisco X., 2011. "U.S. softwood lumber demand and supply estimation using cointegration in dynamic equations," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 19-33, January.
  9. WAN, Shui-Ki & WANG, Shin-Huei & WOO, Chi-Keung, 2012. "Total tourist arrival forecast: aggregation vs. disaggregation," CORE Discussion Papers 2012039, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  10. Cheng Hsiao, 2005. "Longitudinal Data Analysis," Economic Growth centre Working Paper Series 0510, Nanyang Technolgical University, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Economic Growth centre.
  11. Jia, Junxue & Guo, Qingwang & Zhang, Jing, 2014. "Fiscal decentralization and local expenditure policy in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 107-122.
  12. Stefano Fachin & Andrea Gavosto, 2010. "Trends of labour productivity in Italy: a study with panel co-integration methods," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 31(7), pages 755-769, November.
  13. Giacomo Sbrana, 2007. "Testing for Model Selection in Predicting Aggregate Variables," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 66(1), pages 3-28, March.
  14. Hiroshi Fujiki, 2013. "Japanese Money Demand from the Regional Data: An Update and Some Additional Results," IMES Discussion Paper Series 13-E-04, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpd:pd2002:a4-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sune Karlsson).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.