Total tourist arrival forecast: aggregation vs. disaggregation
AbstractTotal tourist arrivals are the sum of disaggregate subcomponent arrivals by country of origin. We use seven time-series models to assess whether the aggregate approach that directly forecasts the total tourist arrivals outperforms the disaggregate approach that produces the total arrival forecast as an unweighted sum of its subcomponent forecasts. Based on Hong Kong's monthly tourist arrival data, we find (a) the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model outperforms the other non-seasonal and seasonal models under the aggregate approach, and (b) forecast performance can be improved by the disaggregate approach.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) in its series CORE Discussion Papers with number 2012039.
Date of creation: 11 Oct 2012
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tourism demand; aggregate and disaggregate approaches; forecast combination; seasonal ARIMA; Holt-Winters;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
- C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
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