Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Total tourist arrival forecast: aggregation vs. disaggregation

Contents:

Author Info

  • WAN, Shui-Ki

    (Hong Kong Baptist University)

  • WANG, Shin-Huei

    (Université catholique de Louvain, CORE, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium; CEREFIM, FUNDP, Belgium)

  • WOO, Chi-Keung

    (Houston Baptist University, Texas, USA)

Abstract

Total tourist arrivals are the sum of disaggregate subcomponent arrivals by country of origin. We use seven time-series models to assess whether the aggregate approach that directly forecasts the total tourist arrivals outperforms the disaggregate approach that produces the total arrival forecast as an unweighted sum of its subcomponent forecasts. Based on Hong Kong's monthly tourist arrival data, we find (a) the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model outperforms the other non-seasonal and seasonal models under the aggregate approach, and (b) forecast performance can be improved by the disaggregate approach.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://uclouvain.be/cps/ucl/doc/core/documents/coredp2012_39web.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) in its series CORE Discussion Papers with number 2012039.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 11 Oct 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cor:louvco:2012039

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Voie du Roman Pays 34, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium)
Phone: 32(10)474321
Fax: +32 10474304
Email:
Web page: http://www.uclouvain.be/core
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: tourism demand; aggregate and disaggregate approaches; forecast combination; seasonal ARIMA; Holt-Winters;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2002. "Modelling methodology and forecast failure," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 319-344, 06.
  2. Kirstin Hubrich, 2004. "Forecasting euro area inflation: Does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 230, Society for Computational Economics.
  3. Cheng Hsiao & Yan Shen & Hiroshi Fujiki, 2002. "Aggregate vs Disaggregate Data Analysis - A Paradox in the Estimation of Money Demand Function of Japan Under the Low Interest Rate Policy," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 A4-1, International Conferences on Panel Data.
  4. Kohn, Robert, 1982. "When is an aggregate of a time series efficiently forecast by its past?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 337-349, April.
  5. Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2006. "Forecasting with Breaks," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  6. Granger, C. W. J., 1987. "Implications of Aggregation with Common Factors," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(02), pages 208-222, April.
  7. Van Garderen, K. J. & Lee, K. & Pesaran M., 1998. "Cross-sectional Aggregation of Non-linear Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9803, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  8. Lutkepohl, Helmut, 1984. "Forecasting Contemporaneously Aggregated Vector ARMA Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(3), pages 201-14, July.
  9. Bruneau, C. & De Bandt, O. & Flageollet, A. & Michaux, E., 2003. "Forecasting Inflation using Economic Indicators: the Case of France," Working papers 101, Banque de France.
  10. Mark W. Watson & James H. Stock, 2004. "Combination forecasts of output growth in a seven-country data set," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(6), pages 405-430.
  11. Huiyu Huang & Tae-Hwy Lee, 2010. "To Combine Forecasts or to Combine Information?," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(5-6), pages 534-570.
  12. Pesaran, M Hashem & Pierse, Richard G & Kumar, Mohan S, 1989. "Econometric Analysis of Aggregation in the Context of Linear Prediction Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 861-88, July.
  13. Zellner, Arnold & Tobias, Justin, 2004. "A Note on Aggregation, Disaggregation and Forecasting Performance," Staff General Research Papers 12371, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  14. Fair, Ray C & Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 375-89, June.
  15. Massimiliano Marcellino & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, . "Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Euro Area: Country Specific versus Area-Wide Information," Working Papers 201, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  16. Witt, Stephen F. & Witt, Christine A., 1995. "Forecasting tourism demand: A review of empirical research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 447-475, September.
  17. A. Espasa & E. Senra & R. Albacete, 2002. "Forecasting inflation in the European Monetary Union: A disaggregated approach by countries and by sectors," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 402-421.
  18. Lutkepohl, Helmut, 1984. "Linear transformations of vector ARMA processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 283-293, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Pierre Dehez & Sophie Poukens, 2013. "The Shapley value as a guide to FRAND licensing agreements," Working Papers of BETA 2013-03, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  2. Thierry Bréchet & Carmen Camacho & Vladimir M. Veliov, 2012. "Adaptive Model-Predictive Climate Policies in a Multi-Country Setting," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 12029, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  3. WANG, Shin-Huei & BAUWENS, Luc & HSIAO, Cheng, 2012. "Forecasting long memory processes subject to structural breaks," CORE Discussion Papers 2012048, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  4. Nora, Vladyslav & Uno, Hiroshi, 2014. "Saddle functions and robust sets of equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 866-877.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cor:louvco:2012039. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Alain GILLIS).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.