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Total tourist arrival forecast: aggregation vs. disaggregation

Author

Listed:
  • WAN, Shui-Ki

    (Hong Kong Baptist University)

  • WANG, Shin-Huei

    (Université catholique de Louvain, CORE, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium; CEREFIM, FUNDP, Belgium)

  • WOO, Chi-Keung

    (Houston Baptist University, Texas, USA)

Abstract

Total tourist arrivals are the sum of disaggregate subcomponent arrivals by country of origin. We use seven time-series models to assess whether the aggregate approach that directly forecasts the total tourist arrivals outperforms the disaggregate approach that produces the total arrival forecast as an unweighted sum of its subcomponent forecasts. Based on Hong Kong's monthly tourist arrival data, we find (a) the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model outperforms the other non-seasonal and seasonal models under the aggregate approach, and (b) forecast performance can be improved by the disaggregate approach.

Suggested Citation

  • WAN, Shui-Ki & WANG, Shin-Huei & WOO, Chi-Keung, 2012. "Total tourist arrival forecast: aggregation vs. disaggregation," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2012039, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    • Handle: RePEc:cor:louvco:2012039
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    File URL: https://sites.uclouvain.be/core/publications/coredp/coredp2012.html
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jacques Dreze, 2016. "Existence and multiplicity of temporary equilibria under nominal price rigidities," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 62(1), pages 279-298, June.
    2. ROELS, Guillaume & CHEVALIER, Philippe & WEI, Ying, 2012. "United we stand? Coordinating capacity investment and allocation in joint ventures," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2012045, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    tourism demand; aggregate and disaggregate approaches; forecast combination; seasonal ARIMA; Holt-Winters;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General

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