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Forecasting Inflation In The European Monetary Union: A Disaggregated Approach By Countries And By Sectors

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Author Info
A. Espasa ()
E. Senra ()
R. Albacete ()
Abstract

Inflation in the European Monetary Union is measured by the Harmonised Indices of Consumer Prices (HICP) and it can be analysed by breaking down the aggregate index in two different ways. One refers to the breakdown into price indexes corresponding to big groups of markets throughout the European countries and another considers the HICP by countries. Both disaggregations are of interest because in each one, the component prices are not fully cointegrated, having more than one common factor in their trends. The paper shows that the breakdown by group of markets improves the European inflation forecasts and constitutes a framework in which general and specific indicators can be introduced for further improvements

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Paper provided by Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría in its series Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers with number ws013723.

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Date of creation: Jun 2001
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Handle: RePEc:cte:wsrepe:ws013723

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  1. Tobias, Justin & Zellner, Arnold, 2004. "A Note on Aggregation, Disaggregation and Forecasting Performance," Staff General Research Papers 12024, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
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  2. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1998. "Diffusion Indexes," NBER Working Papers 6702, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. James MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 90-4, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  4. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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