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On the robustness of cointegration tests when series are fractionally intergrated

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Jesús Gonzalo, Tae-Hwy Lee

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Abstract

This paper shows that when series are fractionally integrated, but unit root tests wrongly indicate that they are I(1), Johansen likelihood ratio (LR) tests tend to find too much spurious cointegration, while the Engle-Granger test presents a more robust performance. This result holds asymptotically as well as infinite samples. The different performance of these two methods is due to the fact that they are based on different principles. The Johansen procedure is based on maximizing correlations (canonical correlation) while Engle-Granger minimizes variances (in the spirit of principal components).

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Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Journal of Applied Statistics.

Volume (Year): 27 (2000)
Issue (Month): 7 (September)
Pages: 821-827
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Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:27:y:2000:i:7:p:821-827

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Tieslau, M.A., 1991. "Long Memory Models and Macroeconomic Time Series," Papers 9005, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  2. Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Maximum likelihood estimation of stationary univariate fractionally integrated time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 165-188. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Modeling long-run behavior with the fractional ARIMA model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 277-302, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1991. "Is Consumption Too Smooth? Long Memory and the Deaton Paradox," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(1), pages 1-9, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Diebold, Francis X., 1994. "On maximum likelihood estimation of the differencing parameter of fractionally-integrated noise with unknown mean," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 301-316, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Hassler, Uwe & Wolters, Jurgen, 1995. "Long Memory in Inflation Rates: International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 37-45, January.
  9. Chung, Ching-Fan & Baillie, Richard T, 1993. "Small Sample Bias in Conditional Sum-of-Squares Estimators of Fractionally Integrated ARMA Models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 791-806.
  10. Sowell, Fallaw, 1990. "The Fractional Unit Root Distribution," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(2), pages 495-505, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "A Fractional Cointegration Analysis of Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 103-12, January.
  12. Cheung, Yin-Wong, 1993. "Long Memory in Foreign-Exchange Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 93-101, January.
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  1. Arielle Beyaert, 2004. "Fractional Output Convergence, with an Application to Nine Developed Countries," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 280, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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