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A re-evaluation of empirical tests of the Fisher hypothesis

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  • Basma Bekdache

    ()
    (Wayne State University)

  • Christopher F. Baum

    ()
    (Boston College
    DIW Berlin)

Abstract

This paper shows that the recent literature that tests for a long-run Fisher relationship using cointegration analysis is seriously flawed. Cointegration analysis assumes that the variables in question are I(1) or I(d) with the same d. Using monthly post-war U.S. data from 1959-1997, we show that this is not the case for nominal interest rates and inflation. While we cannot reject the hypothesis that nominal interest rates have a unit root, we find that inflation is a long-memory process. A direct test for the equality of the fractional differencing parameter for both series decisively rejects the hypothesis that the series share the same order of integration.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Boston College Department of Economics in its series Boston College Working Papers in Economics with number 472.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 18 Sep 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:472

Note: This paper was previously titled "The Fisher Equation in the Context of Fractional Cointegration"
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Keywords: Fisher hypothesis; cointegration; long memory;

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References

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  1. Martin D.D. Evans & Karen K. Lewis, 1993. "Do Expected Shifts in Inflation Affect Estimates of the Long-Run Fisher Relation?," Working Papers 93-06, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  2. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1991. "Is the Fisher Effect for Real? A Reexamination of the Relationship Between Inflation and Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 3632, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Ng, S. & Perron, P., 1994. "Unit Root Tests ARMA Models with Data Dependent Methods for the Selection of the Truncation Lag," Cahiers de recherche 9423, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en ├ęconomie quantitative, CIREQ.
  4. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  5. Christopher F. Baum & John T. Barkoulas & Mustafa Caglayan, 1999. "Persistence in International Inflation Rates," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 65(4), pages 900-913, April.
  6. Baillie, Richard T & Chung, Ching-Fan & Tieslau, Margie A, 1996. "Analysing Inflation by the Fractionally Integrated ARFIMA-GARCH Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 23-40, Jan.-Feb..
  7. Cochrane, John H., 1991. "A critique of the application of unit root tests," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 275-284, April.
  8. Perron, P., 1994. "Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables," Cahiers de recherche 9421, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  9. Hassler, Uwe & Wolters, Jurgen, 1994. "On the power of unit root tests against fractional alternatives," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 1-5, May.
  10. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
  11. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1999. "Discrete Fourier Transforms of Fractional Processes," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1243, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  12. Crato, Nuno & Rothman, Philip, 1994. "Fractional integration analysis of long-run behavior for US macroeconomic time series," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 287-291.
  13. Sowell, Fallaw, 1990. "The Fractional Unit Root Distribution," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(2), pages 495-505, March.
  14. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1991. "On the power of Dickey-Fuller tests against fractional alternatives," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 155-160, February.
  15. Gonzalo, Jesus & Lee, Tae-Hwy, 1998. "Pitfalls in testing for long run relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 129-154, June.
  16. Perron, Pierre, 1990. "Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 153-62, April.
  17. Wu, Yangru & Zhang, Hua, 1996. "Mean Reversion in Interest Rates: New Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(4), pages 604-21, November.
  18. Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  19. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1999. "Unit Root Log Periodogram Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1244, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  20. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-20, July.
  21. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1998. "Econometric Analysis of Fisher's Equation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1180, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  22. Hassler, Uwe & Wolters, Jurgen, 1995. "Long Memory in Inflation Rates: International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 37-45, January.
  23. Fama, Eugene F, 1975. "Short-Term Interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 269-82, June.
  24. Clemente, Jesus & Montanes, Antonio & Reyes, Marcelo, 1998. "Testing for a unit root in variables with a double change in the mean," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 175-182, May.
  25. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  26. Crowder, William J & Hoffman, Dennis L, 1996. "The Long-Run Relationship between Nominal Interest Rates and Inflation: The Fisher Equation Revisited," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 102-18, February.
  27. Hauser, Michael A & Kunst, Robert M, 1998. " Fractionally Integrated Models with ARCH Errors: With an Application to the Swiss One-Month Euromarket Interest Rate," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 95-113, January.
  28. Chang Sik Kim & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2006. "Log Periodogram Regression: The Nonstationary Case," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1587, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  29. Michael Dueker & Richard Startz, 1998. "Maximum-Likelihood Estimation Of Fractional Cointegration With An Application To U.S. And Canadian Bond Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(3), pages 420-426, August.
  30. Christopher F. Baum & Vince Wiggins, 2001. "Tests for long memory in a time series," Stata Technical Bulletin, StataCorp LP, vol. 10(57).
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2004. "Long memory in the U.S. interest rate," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 265-276.
  2. David Demery & Nigel Duck, 2002. "Cointegration-based tests of the New Keynesian Model of inflation," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 02/541, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
  3. Burcu Kiran, 2013. "A fractional cointegration analysis of Fisher hypothesis: evidence from Turkey," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 1077-1084, February.
  4. Kanas, Angelos, 2008. "On real interest rate dynamics and regime switching," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2089-2098, October.

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