This file is part of IDEAS , which uses RePEc data
[ Papers |
Articles |
Software |
Books |
Chapters |
Authors |
Institutions |
JEL Classification |
NEP reports |
Search |
New papers by email |
Author registration |
Rankings |
Volunteers |
FAQ |
Blog |
Help! ]
Forecasting And Turning Point Predictions In A Bayesian Panel Var Model Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Fabio Canova (Universitat Pompeu Fabra)
Matteo Ciccarelli (Universidad de Alicante)
Additional information is available for the following
registered author(s):
We provide methods for forecasting variables and predicting turning points in panel Bayesian VARs. We specify a flexible model which accounts for both interdependencies in the cross section and time variations in the parameters. Posterior distributions for the parameters are obtained for a particular type of diffuse, for Minnesota-type and for hierarchical priors. Formulas for multistep, multiunit point and average forecasts are provided. An application to the problem of forecasting the growth rate of output and of predicting turning points in the G-7 illustrates the approach. A comparison with alternative forecasting methods is also provided.
To download:
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the
proper application to
view it first. Information about this may be contained
in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read
the IDEAS help
page . Note that these files are not on the IDEAS
site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Paper provided by Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie) in its series Working Papers. Serie AD with number
2000-05.
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML
(with abstract ),
plain text
(with abstract ),
BibTeX ,
RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite),
ReDIF
Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2000Date of revision:
Publication status: Published by IvieHandle: RePEc:ivi:wpasad:2000-05Contact details of provider: Postal: C/ Guardia Civil, 22, Esc 2a, 1o, E-46020 VALENCIA Phone: +34 96 319 00 50 Fax: +34 96 319 00 55 Email: Web page: http://www.ivie.es/ More information through EDIRC
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Departamento de Edición).
Keywords: Forecasting ; Turning Points ; Bayesian Methods ; Panel VAR ; Markov Chains Monte Carlo Methods ; Other versions of this item:
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.: Robert B. Litterman, 1985.
"Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions five years of experience ,"
Working Papers
274, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995.
"Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels ,"
Journal of Econometrics ,
Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Chamberlain, Gary, 1982.
"Multivariate regression models for panel data ,"
Journal of Econometrics ,
Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 5-46, January.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Kadiyala, K Rao & Karlsson, Sune, 1997.
"Numerical Methods for Estimation and Inference in Bayesian VAR-Models ,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics ,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 99-132, March-Apr.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1986.
"Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distribution ,"
Staff Report
93, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: Hsiao, C. & Pesaran, M. H. & Tahmiscioglu, A. K., 1998.
"Bayes Estimation of Short-run Coefficients in Dynamic Panel Data Models ,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
9804, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1988.
"Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data ,"
Econometrica ,
Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1371-95, November.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Zellner, Arnold & Hong, Chansik, 1989.
"Forecasting international growth rates using Bayesian shrinkage and other procedures ,"
Journal of Econometrics ,
Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 183-202, January.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Alexander W. Hoffmaister & Jorge Roldos, 1997.
"Are Business Cycles Different in Asia and Latin America? ,"
IMF Working Papers
97/9, International Monetary Fund.
Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1995.
"The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Evidence from the G-7 Countries ,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1219, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward, 1996.
"Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation Methods in Econometrics ,"
Econometric Theory ,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(03), pages 409-431, August.
[Downloadable!]
Garcia-Ferrer, Antonio, et al, 1987.
"Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Pooled International Data ,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics ,
American Statistical Association, vol. 5(1), pages 53-67, January.
Ingram, Beth F. & Whiteman, Charles H., 1994.
"Supplanting the 'Minnesota' prior: Forecasting macroeconomic time series using real business cycle model priors ,"
Journal of Monetary Economics ,
Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 497-510, December.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Canova, Fabio & Marcet, Albert, 1995.
"The Poor Stay Poor: Non-Convergence Across Countries and Regions ,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1265, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 1998.
"Conditional forecasts in dynamic multivariate models ,"
Working Paper
98-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: repec:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:3:p:409-31 is not listed on IDEAS
Koop, G, 1992.
"Aggregate Shocks and Macroeconomic Fluctuations: A Bayesian Approach ,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics ,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(4), pages 395-411, Oct.-Dec..
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Sims, Christopher A & Zha, Tao, 1998.
"Bayesian Methods for Dynamic Multivariate Models ,"
International Economic Review ,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 949-68, November.
Other versions: Zellner, Arnold & Hong, Chansik & Min, Chung-ki, 1991.
"Forecasting turning points in international output growth rates using Bayesian exponentially weighted autoregression, time-varying parameter, and pooling techniques ,"
Journal of Econometrics ,
Elsevier, vol. 49(1-2), pages 275-304.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full
references Cited by : (explanations , Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
E. Andersson & D. Bock & M. Frisén, 2006.
"Some statistical aspects of methods for detection of turning points in business cycles ,"
Journal of Applied Statistics ,
Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 257-278, April.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Marta Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008.
"Large Bayesian VARs ,"
ECARES Working Papers
2008_033, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Ecares.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2006.
"Estimating multi-country VAR models ,"
Working Paper Series
603, European Central Bank.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions:
Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2002.
"Estimating Multi-country VAR models ,"
Economics Working Papers
920, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 2008.
[Downloadable!] Matteo Ciccarelli & Fabio Canova, 2006.
"Estimating Multi-country VAR models ,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2006
478, Society for Computational Economics.
Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2007.
"Estimating Multi-country VAR models ,"
Discussion Papers
7_2007, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
[Downloadable!] Canova, Fabio, 2002.
"G-7 Inflation Forecasts ,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3283, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Fabio Canova, 2002.
"G-7 inflation forecasts ,"
Working Paper Series
151, European Central Bank.
[Downloadable!]
Andrea Carriero & George Kapetanios & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2009.
"Forecasting Large Datasets with Bayesian Reduced Rank Multivariate Models ,"
Economics Working Papers
ECO2009/31, European University Institute.
[Downloadable!]
William T. Gavin & Athena T. Theodorou, 2004.
"A common model approach to macroeconomics: using panel data to reduce sampling error ,"
Working Papers
2003-045, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: Marek Jarocinski, 2006.
"Responses to Monetary Policy Shocks in the East and the West of Europe: A Comparison ,"
Working Papers
124, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2003.
"Panel Index VAR Models: Specification, Estimation, Testing and Leading Indicators ,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4033, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Kosei Fukuda, 2009.
"Forecasting growth cycle turning points using US and Japanese professional forecasters ,"
Empirical Economics ,
Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 243-267, May.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Canova, Fabio, 2003.
"The Transmission of US Shocks to Latin America ,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3963, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Sylvia Kaufmann, 2008.
"Dating and forecasting turning points by Bayesian clustering with dynamic structure: A suggestion with an application to Austrian data ,"
Working Papers
144, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
[Downloadable!]
Michael D. Bordo & John Landon Lane & Angela Redish, 2004.
"Good versus Bad Deflation: Lessons from the Gold Standard Era ,"
NBER Working Papers
10329, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
John W. Galbraith & Greg Tkacz, 2007.
"How Far Can Forecasting Models Forecast? Forecast Content Horizons for Some Important Macroeconomic Variables ,"
Working Papers
07-1, Bank of Canada.
[Downloadable!]
Alberto Baffigi & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2002.
"Real-time GDP forecasting in the euro area ,"
Temi di discussione (Economic working papers)
456, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department.
[Downloadable!]
Fabio Canova, 2003.
"The transmission of US shocks to Latin America ,"
Economics Working Papers
925, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 2004.
[Downloadable!]
Matteo Ciccarelli & Alessandro Rebucci, 2002.
"The Transmission Mechanism of European Monetary Policy: Is There Heterogeneity? Is it Changing over Time? ,"
IMF Working Papers
02/54, International Monetary Fund.
[Downloadable!]
Fabio Canova, 2005.
"The transmission of US shocks to Latin America ,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics ,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 229-251.
[Downloadable!]
Access and
download statistics Did you know? RePEc and its associated services are free for contributors and users, and do not accept any advertising.
This page was last updated on 2009-11-15.
This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics , College of Liberal Arts and Sciences , University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics .