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A Note on Aggregation, Disaggregation and Forecasting Performance

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Author Info
Tobias, Justin
Zellner, Arnold

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Abstract

In this note the results of an experiment to determine the effects of aggregation and disaggregation in forecasting the median growth rate of eighteen industrialized countries' annual output (GDP) growth rates are reported.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Iowa State University, Department of Economics in its series Staff General Research Papers with number 12024.

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Date of creation: 27 Aug 2004
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Publication status: Published in Journal of Forecasting, 2000, Vol. 19, pp. 457-469.
Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:12024

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Postal: Iowa State University, Dept. of Economics, 260 Heady Hall, Ames, IA 50011-1070
Phone: +1 515.294.6741
Fax: +1 515.294.0221
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Web page: http://www.econ.iastate.edu
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  1. Frédérick Demers & Annie De Champlain, 2005. "Forecasting Core Inflation in Canada: Should We Forecast the Aggregate or the Components?," Working Papers 05-44, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  2. George Athanasopoulos & Roman A. Ahmed & Rob J. Hyndman, 2007. "Hierarchical forecasts for Australian domestic tourism," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 12/07, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, revised Nov 2007. [Downloadable!]
  3. Denny Meyer & Rob J. Hyndman, 2005. "Rating Forecasts for Television Programs," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 1/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Rob J. Hyndman & Roman A. Ahmed & George Athanasopoulos, 2007. "Optimal combination forecasts for hierarchical time series," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 9/07, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer & Coen Pretorius, 2004. "A Framework for Forecasting the Components of the Consumer Price," Development and Comp Systems 0409054, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  6. Frédérick Demers & David Dupuis, 2005. "Forecasting Canadian GDP: Region-Specific versus Countrywide Information," Working Papers 05-31, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  7. A. Espasa & E. Senra & R. Albacete, 2001. "Forecasting Inflation In The European Monetary Union: A Disaggregated Approach By Countries And By Sectors," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws013723, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría. [Downloadable!]
  8. Raffaella Giacomini & Clive W.J. Granger, 2001. "Aggregation of Space-Time Processes," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 2001-07, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. A. Espasa & E. Senra & R. Albacete, 2002. "Forecasting inflation in the European Monetary Union: A disaggregated approach by countries and by sectors," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 402-421, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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