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Abstract

We revisit the concept of unpredictability to explore its implications for forecasting strategies in a non-stationary world subject to structural breaks, where model and mechanism differ. Six aspects of the role of unpredictability are distinguished, compounding the four additional mistakes most likely in estimated forecasting models. Structural breaks, rather than limited information, are the key problem, exacerbated by conflicting requirements on forecast-error corrections. We consider model transformations and corrections to reduce forecast-error biases, as usual at some cost in increased forecast-error variances. The analysis is illustrated by an empirical application to M1 in the UK.

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File URL: http://www.nuff.ox.ac.uk/economics/papers/2004/w15/ForcBasis.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford in its series Economics Papers with number 2004-W15.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 06 May 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nuf:econwp:0415

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Web page: http://www.nuff.ox.ac.uk/economics/

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Find related papers by JEL classification:

• C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
• C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

• NEP-ALL-2004-12-02 (All new papers)
• NEP-ECM-2004-12-02 (Econometrics)
• NEP-ETS-2004-12-02 (Econometric Time Series)
• NEP-HPE-2004-12-02 (History & Philosophy of Economics)

References

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1. David F. Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Working Paper Series 082, European Central Bank.
   
   • Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
   • David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Economics Series Working Papers 78, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
   • Hendry, David F & Michael P. Clements, 2002. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 99, Royal Economic Society.
   • David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Economics Papers 2002-W11, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
2. Makridakis, Spyros & Hibon, Michele, 2000. "The M3-Competition: results, conclusions and implications," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 451-476.
3. David F. Hendry & Neil R. Ericsson, 1990. "Modeling the demand for narrow money in the United Kingdom and the United States," International Finance Discussion Papers 383, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
   
   • Hendry, David F. & Ericsson, Neil R., 1991. "Modeling the demand for narrow money in the United Kingdom and the United States," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 833-881, May.
4. Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1995. "Forecast evaluation and combination," Research Paper 9525, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
   
   • Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1996. "Forecast Evaluation and Combination," NBER Technical Working Papers 0192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
5. Sangjoon Kim & Neil Shephard, 1994. "Stochastic volatility: likelihood inference and comparison with ARCH models," Economics Papers 3., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
   
   • Kim, Sangjoon & Shephard, Neil & Chib, Siddhartha, 1998. "Stochastic Volatility: Likelihood Inference and Comparison with ARCH Models," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(3), pages 361-93, July.
   • Sangjoon Kim, Neil Shephard & Siddhartha Chib, . "Stochastic volatility: likelihood inference and comparison with ARCH models," Economics Papers W26, revised version of W, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
   • Sangjoon Kim & Neil Shephard & Siddhartha Chib, 1996. "Stochastic Volatility: Likelihood Inference And Comparison With Arch Models," Econometrics 9610002, EconWPA.
6. Chevillon, Guillaume & Hendry, David F., 2005. "Non-parametric direct multi-step estimation for forecasting economic processes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 201-218.
   
   • Guillaume Chevillon & David F. Hendry, 2004. "Non-Parametric Direct Multi-step Estimation for Forecasting Economic Processes," Economics Papers 2004-W12, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
   • David Hendry & Guillaume Chevillon, 2004. "Non-Parametric Direct Multi-step Estimation for Forecasting Economic Processes," Economics Series Working Papers 196, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
7. Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521634809.
   
   • Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521632423.
8. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1999. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Identification and Estimation," CEPR Discussion Papers 2338, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
   
   • Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model: Identification And Estimation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 540-554, November.
   • Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Lucrezia Reichlin & Marco Lippi, 2000. "The generalised dynamic factor model: identification and estimation," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10143, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
9. Paruolo, Paolo, 1996. "On the determination of integration indices in I(2) systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 313-356.
10. Melino, Angelo & Turnbull, Stuart M., 1990. "Pricing foreign currency options with stochastic volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 239-265.
11. Clara Jørgensen & Hans Christian Kongsted & Anders Rahbek, 1996. "Trend-Stationarity in the I(2) Cointegration Model," Discussion Papers 96-12, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    
    • Rahbek, Anders & Christian Kongsted, Hans & Jorgensen, Clara, 1999. "Trend stationarity in the I(2) cointegration model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 265-289, June.
12. Johansen, Søren, 1992. "A Representation of Vector Autoregressive Processes Integrated of Order 2," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(02), pages 188-202, June.
13. repec:cup:etheor:v:8:y:1992:i:2:p:188-202 is not listed on IDEAS
14. Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164, September.

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Cited by:

1. David F. Hendry & Kirstin Hubrich, 2006. "Forecasting economic aggregates by disaggregates," Working Paper Series 589, European Central Bank.
   
   • Hendry, David F & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2006. "Forecasting Economic Aggregates by Disaggregates," CEPR Discussion Papers 5485, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
2. Qin, Duo & Cagas, Marie Anne & Ducanes, Geoffrey & Magtibay-Ramos, Nedelyn & Quising, Pilipinas, 2008. "Automatic leading indicators versus macroeconometric structural models: A comparison of inflation and GDP growth forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 399-413.
3. Kirstin Hubrich & David F. Hendry, 2005. "Forecasting Aggregates by Disaggregates," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 270, Society for Computational Economics.

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