This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Aggregation, Persistence and Volatility in a Macromodel

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Karim Abadir
Gabriel Talmain

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This paper shows that aggregation over heterogeneous firms, which are subject to temporary technology shocks, will lead to long memory and nonlinearities. We start from microfoundations, using standard RBC model of monopolistic competition. We then derive the fundamental intertemporal equilibrium path of the economy, and study analytically the time series properties of GDP. We show that the resulting stochastic process is radically different from the process followed by the firms' productivities, which are conventional dynamically-stable autoregressive (AR) processes. This new process is nonlinear, more persistent than any stable AR and yet is mean-reverting (unlike unit-root processes). Its volatility is of a greater order of magnitude than that of any of its components. This amplicfication of volatility means that even small shocks at the micro level can lead to large fluctuations at the macro level. The process is also characterized by long cycles which have random lengths and which are asymmetric. Increased monopoly power will tend to reduce the amplitude and increase the persistence of business cycles.

Download Info
To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of York in its series Discussion Papers with number 01/03.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation:
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:yor:yorken:01/03

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics and Related Studies, University of York, York, YO10 5DD, United Kingdom
Phone: (0)1904 433776
Fax: (0)1904 433759
Email:
Web page: http://www.york.ac.uk/depts/econ/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Michael Shallcross).

Related research
Keywords: Autoregressive (AR) process; Autocovariance functions; Autocorrelation functions; Heterogeneous (non-representative) firms; Long memory processes; Monopolistic Competition; Real Business Cycle (RBC).;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
  1. Laura Mayoral, 2005. "Further evidence on the statistical properties of Real GNP," Economics Working Papers 955, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Feb 2006. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Gilles Dufrénot & Valérie Mignon & Théo Naccache, . "The slow convergence of per capita income between the developing countries: “growth resistance” and sometimes “growth tragedy”," Discussion Papers 09/03, University of Nottingham, CREDIT. [Downloadable!]
  3. Gianluca, MORETTI & Giulio, NICOLETTI, 2008. "Estimating DGSE models with long memory dynamics," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2008037, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques. [Downloadable!]
  4. Yan Shen & Cheng Hsiao & Hiroshi Fujiki, 2005. "Aggregate vs. disaggregate data analysis-a paradox in the estimation of a money demand function of Japan under the low interest rate policy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(5), pages 579-601. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo, 2008. "Long Memory and Non-Linearities in International Inflation," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0076, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno". [Downloadable!]
  6. Andrea Vaona, 2006. "Merging the Purchasing Power Parity and the Phillips Curve Literatures: Regional Evidence from Italy," Working Papers 33, Università di Verona, Dipartimento di Scienze economiche. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Karim Abadir & Gabriel Talmain, 2005. "Distilling co-movements from persistent macro and financial series," Working Paper Series 525, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. Döpke, Jörg & Funke, Michael & Holly, Sean & Weber, Sebastian, 2005. "The cross-sectional dynamics of German business cycles : a bird's eye view," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,23, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Taner Yigit, 2007. "Inflation Targeting : An Indirect Approach to Assess the Direct Impact," Departmental Working Papers 0706, Bilkent University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Marcelo Fernandes & Marcelo Cunha Medeiros & MArcelo Scharth, 2007. "Modeling and predicting the CBOE market volatility index," Textos para discussão 548, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
  11. Robert Dixon & David Shepherd, 2006. "The Cyclical Dynamics and Volatility of Australian Output and Employment," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 968, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. F. Owen Irvine & Scott Schuh, 2005. "The roles of comovement and inventory investment in the reduction of output volatility," Working Papers 05-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
  13. G Caggiano & L Leonida, . "International Output Convergence: Evidence from an AutoCorrelation Function Approach," Working Papers 2006_20, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Gadea, Maria & Mayoral, Laura, 2005. "The Persistence of Inflation in OECD Countries: A Fractionally Integrated Approach," MPRA Paper 815, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Karim Abadir & Giovanni Caggiano & Gabriel Talmain, 2005. "Nelson-Plosser Revisited: the ACF Approach," Working Papers 2005_7, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Fushang Liu & Kajal Lahiri, 2006. "Modelling multi-period inflation uncertainty using a panel of density forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1199-1219. [Downloadable!]
  17. Gianluca Moretti, 2007. "Detecting long memory co-movements in macroeconomic time series," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 642, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  18. Carlos Carvalho & Fernanda Nechio, 2008. "Aggregation and the PPP puzzle in a sticky-price model," Staff Reports 351, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  19. Michael Fratantoni & Scott Schuh, 2000. "Monetary policy, housing investment, and heterogeneous regional markets," Working Papers 00-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? Apart from a small start up grant in the 1990's, RePEc has received no funding and lives on the help of volunteers.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-25.


This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.