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Aggregation of Space-Time Processes

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Author Info
Raffaella Giacomini () (Boston College)
Clive W.J. Granger (University of California, San Diego)

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Abstract

In this paper we compare the relative efficiency of different methods of forecasting the aggregate of spatially correlated variables. Small sample simulations confirm the asymptotic result that improved forecasting performance can be obtained by imposing a priori constraints on the amount of spatial correlation in the system. We also show that ignoring spatial correlation, even when it is weak, leads to highly inaccurate forecasts.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Boston College Department of Economics in its series Boston College Working Papers in Economics with number 582.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 01 Jul 2002
Date of revision:
Publication status: published, Journal of Econometrics, 2004, 118, 7-26
Handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:582

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Related research
Keywords: Spatial correlation; aggregation; forecast efficiency; space-time models; VAR;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Granger, C. W. J., 1987. "Implications of Aggregation with Common Factors," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(02), pages 208-222, April. [Downloadable!]
  2. Kohn, Robert, 1982. "When is an aggregate of a time series efficiently forecast by its past?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 337-349, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Tobias, Justin & Zellner, Arnold, 2004. "A Note on Aggregation, Disaggregation and Forecasting Performance," Staff General Research Papers 12024, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  4. Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distribution," Staff Report 93, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. F Stetzer, 1982. "Specifying weights in spatial forecasting models: the results of some experiments," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 14(5), pages 571-584, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Elhorst, J.P., 2000. "Dynamic models in space and time," Research Report 00C16, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management). [Downloadable!]
  7. Pesaran, M Hashem & Pierse, Richard G & Kumar, Mohan S, 1989. "Econometric Analysis of Aggregation in the Context of Linear Prediction Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 861-88, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Pinkse, Joris & Slade, Margaret E., 1998. "Contracting in space: An application of spatial statistics to discrete-choice models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 125-154, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Aigner, Dennis J & Goldfeld, Stephen M, 1974. "Estimation and Prediction from Aggregate Data when Aggregates are Measured More Accurately than Their Components," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(1), pages 113-34, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Baillie, Richard T., 1980. "Predictions from ARMAX models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 365-374, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Patrick E. Brown & Gareth O. Roberts & Kjetil F. Kåresen & Stefano Tonellato, 2000. "Blur-generated non-separable space-time models," Journal Of The Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 62(4), pages 847-860. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Hirotugu Akaike, 1969. "Fitting autoregressive models for prediction," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 243-247, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Hall, Alastair R, 1994. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series with Pretest Data-Based Model Selection," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 461-70, October.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Frédérick Demers & Annie De Champlain, 2005. "Forecasting Core Inflation in Canada: Should We Forecast the Aggregate or the Components?," Working Papers 05-44, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  2. Paelinck, J. & Mur, J. & Trívez, J., 2004. "Econometría espacial: más luces que sombras," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 22, pages 1-19, Diciembre. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Maximilian Auffhammer & Richard Carson, 2007. "Forecasting the Path of China's CO2 Emissions Using Province Level Information," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series 971, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Youri Davydov & Vygantas Paulauskas, 2008. "On estimation of parameters for spatial autoregressive model," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 237-247, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Frédérick Demers & David Dupuis, 2005. "Forecasting Canadian GDP: Region-Specific versus Countrywide Information," Working Papers 05-31, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  6. Juan de Dios Tena & Antoni Espasa & Gabriel Pino, 2008. "Forecasting Spanish inflation using information from different sectors and geographical areas," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws080101, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría. [Downloadable!]
  7. Kamarianakis, Yiannis & Prastacos, Poulicos, 2002. "Space-time modeling of traffic flow," ERSA conference papers ersa02p141, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
  8. Trívez Bielsa, F.J., 2004. "Economía espacial: Una disciplina en auge," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 22, pages 1-18, Diciembre. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Hampel, Katharina & Kunz, Marcus & Schanne, Norbert & Wapler, Rüdiger & Weyh, Antje, 2007. "Regional employment forecasts with spatial interdependencies," IAB Discussion Paper 200702, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Arnab Bhattacharjee & Chris Jensen-Butler, 2005. "Estimation of Spatial Weights Matrix in a Spatial Error Model, with an Application to Diffusion in Housing Demand," CRIEFF Discussion Papers 0519, Centre for Research into Industry, Enterprise, Finance and the Firm. [Downloadable!]
  11. Arnab Bhattacharjee & Chris Jensen-Butler, 2005. "A Model of Regional Housing Markets in England and Wales," CRIEFF Discussion Papers 0508, Centre for Research into Industry, Enterprise, Finance and the Firm. [Downloadable!]
  12. Andrea Silvestrini & David Veredas, 2008. "Temporal aggregation of univariate and multivariate time series models: A survey," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 685, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Rubén Hernández-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang, 2004. "The information content of regional employment data for forecasting aggregate conditions," Working Papers 2004-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Caporin Massimiliano & Paruolo Paolo, 2005. "Spatial effects in multivariate ARCH," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf0501, Department of Economics, University of Insubria. [Downloadable!]
  15. Alberto Baffigi & Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2002. "Real-time GDP forecasting in the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 456, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  16. Badi H. Baltagi, 2007. "Forecasting with Panel Data," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 91, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University. [Downloadable!]
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