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Specifying Weights in Spatial Forecasting Models: The Results of Some Experiments

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  • F Stetzer

    (Department of Geography, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio 43210, USA)

Abstract

The application of space-time forecasting models requires the specification of a set of place-to-place weights. The existing literature contains several recommendations for this specification. By a series of Monte Carlo simulations, various weighting rules are compared in terms of estimation of model parameters and accuracy of forecasts. It is shown that specification of the weights is important, especially when sample sizes are small and the data autocorrelated. Generally, the effective area of the weight function is more important than its distance decay.

Suggested Citation

  • F Stetzer, 1982. "Specifying Weights in Spatial Forecasting Models: The Results of Some Experiments," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 14(5), pages 571-584, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envira:v:14:y:1982:i:5:p:571-584
    DOI: 10.1068/a140571
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    Cited by:

    1. Gian Zaccomer & Pamela Mason, 2011. "A new spatial shift-share decomposition for the regional growth analysis: a local study of the employment based on Italian Business Statistical Register," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 20(3), pages 329-356, August.
    2. Masayoshi Hayashi & Wataru Yamamoto, 2017. "Information sharing, neighborhood demarcation, and yardstick competition: an empirical analysis of intergovernmental expenditure interaction in Japan," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 24(1), pages 134-163, February.
    3. Arbia, Giuseppe & Battisti, Michele & Di Vaio, Gianfranco, 2010. "Institutions and geography: Empirical test of spatial growth models for European regions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 12-21, January.
    4. Ana Angulo & Peter Burridge & Jesus Mur, 2017. "Testing for a structural break in the weight matrix of the spatial error or spatial lag model," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2-3), pages 161-181, July.
    5. Rosa Bernadini Papalia & Silvia Bertarelli, 2013. "Identification and Estimation of Club Convergence Models with Spatial Dependence," International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(6), pages 2094-2115, November.
    6. Alejandro Díaz-Bautista, 2003. "Convergence And Economic Growth Considering Human Capital And R&D Spillovers," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 2(2), pages 127-143, Junio 200.
    7. Giacomini, Raffaella & Granger, Clive W. J., 2004. "Aggregation of space-time processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 118(1-2), pages 7-26.
    8. M. Mucciardi & E. Otranto, 2016. "A Flexible Specification of Space–Time AutoRegressive Models," Working Paper CRENoS 201608, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    9. André Matos Magalhães, 2001. "Clubes de Convergência no Brasil: uma Abordagem Com Correção Espacial," Anais do XXIX Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 29th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 076, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    10. Tirtha Chatterjee, 2017. "Spatial Convergence and Growth in Indian Agriculture: 1967–2010," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 15(1), pages 121-149, March.
    11. Funke, Michael & Niebuhr, Annekatrin, 2000. "Spatial R&D Spillovers and Economic Growth - Evidence from West Germany," Discussion Paper Series 26396, Hamburg Institute of International Economics.
    12. Ruiz, Fernando & Gerard, Marcel, 2008. "Is there evidence of strategic corporate tax interaction among EU countries?," MPRA Paper 10094, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Edoardo Otranto & Massimo Mucciardi, 2019. "Clustering space-time series: FSTAR as a flexible STAR approach," Advances in Data Analysis and Classification, Springer;German Classification Society - Gesellschaft für Klassifikation (GfKl);Japanese Classification Society (JCS);Classification and Data Analysis Group of the Italian Statistical Society (CLADAG);International Federation of Classification Societies (IFCS), vol. 13(1), pages 175-199, March.
    14. Niebuhr, Annekatrin, 2000. "Convergence and the effects of spatial interaction," HWWA Discussion Papers 110, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    15. Tao Cheng & James Haworth & Jiaqiu Wang, 2012. "Spatio-temporal autocorrelation of road network data," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 389-413, October.
    16. Niebuhr, Annekatrin, 2000. "Räumliche Wachstumszusammenhänge – Empirische Befunde für Deutschland," HWWA Discussion Papers 84, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    17. William Mitchell, 2014. "Spatial econometric modelling," Chapters, in: Robert Stimson (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Spatially Integrated Social Science, chapter 17, pages 345-377, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Matias Mayor Fernandez & Esteban Fernandez Vazquez & Jorge Rodriguez Valez, 2006. "Spatial Structures and Spatial Spillovers: A GME Approach," ERSA conference papers ersa06p777, European Regional Science Association.
    19. Stanislav Stakhovych & Tammo H.A. Bijmolt, 2009. "Specification of spatial models: A simulation study on weights matrices," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(2), pages 389-408, June.
    20. Niebuhr, Annekatrin, 2002. "Spatial dependence of regional unemployment in the European Union," HWWA Discussion Papers 186, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    21. Sarafidis, Vasilis, 2009. "GMM Estimation of Short Dynamic Panel Data Models With Error Cross-Sectional Dependence," MPRA Paper 25176, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. E. Otranto & M. Mucciardi, 2017. "Clustering Space-Time Series: A Flexible STAR Approach," Working Paper CRENoS 201707, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    23. Alejandro Diaz-Bautista, 2005. "Convergence and Economic Growth considering Human Capital and R&D Spillovers Convergencia y Crecimiento Economico en Mexico considerando al Capital Humano y derrames en Investigacion y Desarrollo," Urban/Regional 0506012, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Matías Mayor Fernández & Ana Jesús López Menéndez, 2005. "The spatial shift-share analysis - new developments and some findings for the Spanish case," ERSA conference papers ersa05p659, European Regional Science Association.

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