Predictive regressions with panel data

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Predictive regressions with panel data

Author Info

Erik Hjalmarsson

Abstract

This paper analyzes panel data inference in predictive regressions with endogenous and nearly persistent regressors. The standard fixed effects estimator is shown to suffer from a second order bias; analytical results, as well as Monte Carlo evidence, show that the bias and resulting size distortions can be severe. New estimators, based on recursive demeaning as well as direct bias correction, are proposed and methods for dealing with cross sectional dependence in the form of common factors are also developed. Overall, the results show that the econometric issues associated with predictive regressions when using time-series data to a large extent also carry over to the panel case. However, practical solutions are more readily available when using panel data. The results are illustrated with an application to predictability in international stock indices.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 869.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:869

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2006-12-16 (All new papers)
NEP-ECM-2006-12-16 (Econometrics)
NEP-ETS-2006-12-16 (Econometric Time Series)

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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Other versions:
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Other versions:
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Other versions:
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Other versions:
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Other versions:
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Graham Elliott, 1998. "On the Robustness of Cointegration Methods when Regressors Almost Have Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 149-158, January.
Other versions:
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Donggyu Sul & Peter C. B. Phillips & Chi-Young Choi, 2005. "Prewhitening Bias in HAC Estimation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(4), pages 517-546, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Donggyu Sul & Peter C.B. Phillips & Choi, Chi-Young, 2003. "Prewhitening Bias in HAC Estimation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1436, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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Other versions:
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repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:5:p:1131-47 is not listed on IDEAS
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Badi H. Baltagi, 2007. "Forecasting with Panel Data," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 91, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Baltagi, Badi H., 2006. "Forecasting with panel data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,25, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
- Badi H. Baltagi, 2008. "Forecasting with panel data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 153-173. [Downloadable!]

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