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Predictive regressions with panel data

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  • Erik Hjalmarsson

Abstract

This paper analyzes panel data inference in predictive regressions with endogenous and nearly persistent regressors. The standard fixed effects estimator is shown to suffer from a second order bias; analytical results, as well as Monte Carlo evidence, show that the bias and resulting size distortions can be severe. New estimators, based on recursive demeaning as well as direct bias correction, are proposed and methods for dealing with cross sectional dependence in the form of common factors are also developed. Overall, the results show that the econometric issues associated with predictive regressions when using time-series data to a large extent also carry over to the panel case. However, practical solutions are more readily available when using panel data. The results are illustrated with an application to predictability in international stock indices.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 869.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:869

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Keywords: Financial institutions ; Econometrics;

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  1. Nelson, Charles R & Kim, Myung J, 1993. " Predictable Stock Returns: The Role of Small Sample Bias," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 641-61, June.
  2. Goetzmann, W.N., 1990. "Testing The Predictive Power Of Dividend Yields," Papers fb-_90-12, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
  3. Phillips, Peter C B & Hansen, Bruce E, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125, January.
  4. Peter C. B. Phillips & Hyungsik R. Moon, 1999. "Linear Regression Limit Theory for Nonstationary Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1057-1112, September.
  5. Peter C.B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1988. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 869R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Apr 1989.
  6. Donald W.K. Andrews, 2003. "Cross-section Regression with Common Shocks," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1428, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  7. Lewellen, Jonathan, 2004. "Predicting returns with financial ratios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 209-235, November.
  8. Cavanagh, Christopher L. & Elliott, Graham & Stock, James H., 1995. "Inference in Models with Nearly Integrated Regressors," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(05), pages 1131-1147, October.
  9. Campbell, John Y. & Yogo, Motohiro, 2006. "Efficient tests of stock return predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 27-60, July.
  10. Gregory Mankiw, N. & Shapiro, Matthew D., 1986. "Do we reject too often? : Small sample properties of tests of rational expectations models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 139-145.
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  12. Peter C.B. Phillips & Chi-Young Choi & Donggyu Sul, 2004. "Prewhitening Bias in HAC Estimation," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm426, Yale School of Management.
  13. Stambaugh, Robert F., 1999. "Predictive regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 375-421, December.
  14. John Y. Campbell, 2002. "Consumption-Based Asset Pricing," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1974, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  15. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:5:p:1131-47 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2004. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," CESifo Working Paper Series 1331, CESifo Group Munich.
  17. Michael Jansson & Marcelo J. Moreira, 2004. "Optimal Inference in Regression Models with Nearly Integrated Regressors," NBER Technical Working Papers 0303, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Polk, Christopher & Thompson, Samuel & Vuolteenaho, Tuomo, 2006. "Cross-sectional forecasts of the equity premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 101-141, July.
  19. Peter C.B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2004. "Bias in Dynamic Panel Estimation with Fixed Effects, Incidental Trends and Cross Section Dependence," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm428, Yale School of Management.
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  21. Graham Elliott, 1998. "On the Robustness of Cointegration Methods when Regressors Almost Have Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 149-158, January.
  22. Hjalmarsson, Erik, 2005. "On the Predictability of Global Stock Returns," Working Papers in Economics 161, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
  23. Erik Hjalmarsson, 2005. "Estimation of average local-to-unity roots in heterogenous panels," International Finance Discussion Papers 852, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  24. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2001. "Stock Return Predictability: Is it There?," NBER Working Papers 8207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Peter C.B. Phillips & Victor Solo, 1989. "Asymptotics for Linear Processes," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 932, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  26. Lewellen, Jonathan, 2003. "Predicting Returns With Financial Ratios," Working papers 4374-02, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
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Cited by:
  1. Angelica Gonzalez, 2007. "Empirical Likelihood Estimation in Dynamic Panel Models," ESE Discussion Papers 168, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  2. Badi H. Baltagi, 2008. "Forecasting with panel data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 153-173.
  3. Hjalmarsson, Erik, 2005. "On the Predictability of Global Stock Returns," Working Papers in Economics 161, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.

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