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A common model approach to macroeconomics: using panel data to reduce sampling error

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  • William T. Gavin
  • Athena T. Theodorou

Abstract

Is there a common model inherent in macroeconomic data? Macroeconomic theory suggests that market economies of various nations should share many similar dynamic patterns; as a result, individual-country empirical models, for a wide variety of countries often include the same variables. Yet, empirical studies often find important roles for idiosyncratic shocks in the differing macroeconomic performance of countries. We use forecasting criteria to examine the macro-dynamic behavior of 15 OECD countries in terms of a small set of familiar, widely–used core economic variables, omitting country-specific shocks. We find this small set of variables and a simple VAR “common model” strongly supports the hypothesis that many industrialized nations have similar macroeconomic dynamics.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2003-045.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Publication status: Published in Journal of Forecasting, April 2005, 24(3), pp. 203-19
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2003-045

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Keywords: Time-series analysis ; Forecasting;

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  1. Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2004. "Forecasting and turning point predictions in a Bayesian panel VAR model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 327-359, June.
  2. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
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  4. Fiorito, Riccardo & Kollintzas, Tryphon, 1992. "Stylized Facts of Business Cycles in the G7 from a Real Business Cycles Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 681, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Canova, Fabio, 2002. "G-7 Inflation Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 3283, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End?," NBER Working Papers 6400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting output and inflation: the role of asset prices," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  8. Thursby, Jerry G., 1987. "OLS or GLS in the presence of specification error? : An expected loss approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2-3), pages 359-374, July.
  9. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
  10. Michael D. Bordo & John Landon Lane & Angela Redish, 2004. "Good versus Bad Deflation: Lessons from the Gold Standard Era," NBER Working Papers 10329, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Tuomas A. Peltonen & Ricardo M. Sousa & Isabel S. Vansteenkiste, 2009. "Fundamentals, Financial Factors and The Dynamics of Investment in Emerging Markets," NIPE Working Papers 19/2009, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  2. Luca Agnello & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2010. "Fiscal Policy and Asset Prices," NIPE Working Papers 25/2010, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  3. Galvao Jr., Antonio F., 2011. "Quantile regression for dynamic panel data with fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 142-157, September.
  4. Leonardo Gambacorta & Boris Hofmann & Gert Peersman, 2012. "The Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: A Cross-Country Analysis," BIS Working Papers 384, Bank for International Settlements.
  5. Baltagi, Badi H., 2006. "Forecasting with panel data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,25, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  6. Gert Peersman, 2012. "Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," 2012 Meeting Papers 400, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  7. William T. Gavin & David M. Kemme, 2007. "Using extraneous information to analyze monetary policy in transition economies," Working Papers 2004-034, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

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