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Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out-of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs

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Author Info
Berger, Helge () (Department of Economics, Free University Berlin)
Österholm, Pär () (Department of Economics)

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Abstract

We use a mean-adjusted Bayesian VAR model as an out-of-sample forecasting tool to test whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the euro area. Based on data from 1970 to 2006 and forecasting horizons of up to 12 quarters, there is surprisingly strong evidence that including money improves forecasting accuracy. The results are very robust with regard to alternative treatments of priors and sample periods. That said, there is also reason not to overemphasize the role of money. The predictive power of money growth for inflation is substantially lower in more recent sample periods compared to the 1970s and 1980s. This cautions against using money-based inflation models anchored in very long samples for policy advice.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Uppsala University, Department of Economics in its series Working Paper Series with number 2007:30.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 17 Dec 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:uunewp:2007_030

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Postal: Department of Economics, Uppsala University, P. O. Box 513, SE-751 20 Uppsala, Sweden
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Related research
Keywords: Granger Causality; Monetary Aggregates; Monetary Policy; European Central Bank;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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References listed on IDEAS
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Helge Berger & Emil Stavrev, 2008. "The Information Content of Money in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation," IMF Working Papers 08/166, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Helge Berger & Thomas Harjes, 2009. "Does Global Liquidity Matter for Monetary Policy in the Euro Area?," IMF Working Papers 09/17, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Fourçans, André & Vranceanu, Radu, 2008. "Money in the Inflation Equation: the Euro Area Evidence," ESSEC Working Papers DR 08012, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School. [Downloadable!]
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