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Does Money Growth Granger-Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out-of-Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs

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  • Berger, Helge

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Free University Berlin)

  • Österholm, Pär

    ()
    (Department of Economics)

Abstract

We use a mean-adjusted Bayesian VAR model as an out-of-sample forecasting tool to test whether money growth Granger-causes inflation in the euro area. Based on data from 1970 to 2006 and forecasting horizons of up to 12 quarters, there is surprisingly strong evidence that including money improves forecasting accuracy. The results are very robust with regard to alternative treatments of priors and sample periods. That said, there is also reason not to overemphasize the role of money. The predictive power of money growth for inflation is substantially lower in more recent sample periods compared to the 1970s and 1980s. This cautions against using money-based inflation models anchored in very long samples for policy advice.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Uppsala University, Department of Economics in its series Working Paper Series with number 2007:30.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 17 Dec 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:uunewp:2007_030

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Postal: Department of Economics, Uppsala University, P. O. Box 513, SE-751 20 Uppsala, Sweden
Phone: + 46 18 471 25 00
Fax: + 46 18 471 14 78
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Web page: http://www.nek.uu.se/
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Keywords: Granger Causality; Monetary Aggregates; Monetary Policy; European Central Bank;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Benchimol, Jonathan & Fourçans, André, 2010. "Money and Risk Aversion in a DSGE Framework: A Bayesian Application to the Euro Zone," ESSEC Working Papers DR 10005, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
  2. Emil Stavrev & Helge Berger, 2008. "The Information Content of Money in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation," IMF Working Papers 08/166, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Helge Berger & Thomas Harjes, 2009. "Does Global Liquidity Matter for Monetary Policy in the Euro Area?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(1), pages 33-55, 05.
  4. Fourçans, André & Vranceanu, Radu, 2008. "Money in the Inflation Equation: the Euro Area Evidence," ESSEC Working Papers DR 08012, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.

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