Good versus Bad Deflation: Lessons from the Gold Standard Era
Abstract
Deflation has had a bad rap, largely based on the experience of the 1930's when deflation was synonymous with depression. Recent experience with declining prices in Japan and China together with the concern over deflation in Europe and the United States has led to renewed attention to the topic of deflation. In this paper we focus our attention on the deflation experience of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany in the late nineteenth century during a period characterized by low deflation, rapid productivity growth, positive output growth, and where many nations had a credible nominal anchor based on gold: circumstances which have resonance with the world of today. We identify aggregate supply, aggregate demand, and money supply shocks using a structural panel vector autoregression. We then use historical decompositions to investigate the impact that these structural shocks had on output and prices. Our findings are that the deflation of the late nineteenth century reflected both positive aggregate supply shocks and negative money supply shocks. However, the negative money supply shocks had little effect on output. This we posit is because the aggregate supply curve was very steep in the short run during this period. This contrasts greatly with the deflation experience during the Great Depression. Thus our empirical evidence suggests that deflation in the nineteenth century was primarily good.Download Info
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.Bibliographic Info
Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10329.Length:
Date of creation: Feb 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10329
Note: DAE ME
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Phone: 617-868-3900
Email:
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Related research
Keywords:Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
- N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-02-29 (All new papers)
- NEP-HIS-2004-02-29 (Business, Economic & Financial History)
- NEP-MAC-2004-02-29 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2004-02-29 (Monetary Economics)
References
References listed on IDEASPlease report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1990.
"The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances,"
NBER Working Papers
2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2000.
"Forecasting And Turning Point Predictions In A Bayesian Panel Var Model,"
Working Papers. Serie AD
2000-05, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
- Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2004. "Forecasting and turning point predictions in a Bayesian panel VAR model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 327-359, June.
- Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2001. "Forecasting and Turning Point Predictions in a Bayesian Panel VAR Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 2961, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Fabio Canova & Matteo Ciccarelli, 1999. "Forecasting and turning point predictions in a Bayesian panel VAR model," Economics Working Papers 443, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- U. Michael Bergman & Michael D. Bordo & Lars Jonung, 1998.
"Historical evidence on business cycles: the international experience,"
Conference Series ; [Proceedings],
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jun, pages 65-119.
- Bergman, U. Michael & Bordo, Michael D. & Jonung, Lars, 1998. "Historical Evidence on Business Cycles: The International Experience," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 255, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Michael D. Bordo, 1981. "The classical gold standard: some lessons for today," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 2-17.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995.
"Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1992. "Estimating Long-Run Relationships From Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9215, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Taimur Baig & Jörg Decressin & Tarhan Feyzioglu & Manmohan S. Kumar & Chris Faulkner-MacDonagh, 2003. "Deflation: Determinants, Risks, and Policy Options," IMF Occasional Papers 221, International Monetary Fund.
- Christopher J. Erceg & Michael D. Bordo & Charles L. Evans, 2000.
"Money, Sticky Wages, and the Great Depression,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1447-1463, December.
- Michael D. Bordo & Christopher J. Erceg & Charles L. Evans, 1997. "Money, sticky wages, and the Great Depression," International Finance Discussion Papers 591, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Michael D. Bordo & Christopher J. Erceg & Charles L. Evans, 1997. "Money, sticky wages, and the Great Depression," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-97-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Michael D. Bordo & Christopher J. Erceg & Charles N. Evans, 1997. "Money, Sticky Wages, and the Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 6071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1988.
"Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data,"
Econometrica,
Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1371-95, November.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS program to demonstrate IV estimation of VAR in panel data," Statistical Software Components RTZ00185, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Bordo, Michael David & Ellson, Richard Wayne, 1985. "A model of the classical gold standard with depletion," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 109-120, July.
- Athanasios Orphanides, 2001.
"Monetary policy rules, macroeconomic stability and inflation: a view from the trenches,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2001-62, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Orphanides, Athanasios, 2004. "Monetary Policy Rules, Macroeconomic Stability, and Inflation: A View from the Trenches," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 151-75, April.
- Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary policy rules, macroeconomic stability and inflation: a view from the trenches," Working Paper Series 115, European Central Bank.
- Chappell, David & Dowd, Kevin, 1997. "A Simple Model of the Gold Standard," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 94-105, February.
- Timothy Kehoe & Edward Prescott, 2002.
"Data Appendix to Great Depressions of the Twentieth Century,"
Technical Appendices
kehoe02, Review of Economic Dynamics.
- Timothy J. Kehoe & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Great Depressions of the Twentieth Century," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-18, January.
- Barro, Robert J, 1979. "Money and the Price Level under the Gold Standard," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 89(353), pages 13-33, March.
- Timothy J. Kehoe & Edward C. Prescott (), .
"Great depressions of the twentieth century,"
Monograph,
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, number 2007gdott.
- Timothy J. Kehoe & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Great Depressions of the Twentieth Century," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-18, January.
- Bernanke, Ben S, 1983.
"Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-76, June.
- Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 1054, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Scott Schuh, 1998. "Beyond shocks: what causes business cycles?," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jun.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- Michael Bordo & John Landon-Lane & Angela Redish, 2010. "Deflation, Productivity Shocks and Gold: Evidence from the 1880–1914 Period," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 515-546, September.
- Andrew Filardo & Claudio E. V. Borio, 2004. "Back to the future? Assessing the deflation record," BIS Working Papers 152, Bank for International Settlements.
- John Landon-Lane & Kim Oosterlinck, 2005. "Hope springs eternal… French bondholders and the Soviet Repudiation (1915-1919)," Departmental Working Papers 200513, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2004.
"Deflation and depression: is there an empirical link?,"
Staff Report
331, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2004. "Deflation and Depression: Is There an Empirical Link?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 99-103, May.
- Andrew Atkeson & Patrick Kehoe, 2004. "Deflation and Depression: Is There and Empirical Link?," NBER Working Papers 10268, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- William T. Gavin & Athena T. Theodorou, 2005.
"A common model approach to macroeconomics: using panel data to reduce sampling error,"
Journal of Forecasting,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(3), pages 203-219.
- William T. Gavin & Athena T. Theodorou, 2004. "A common model approach to macroeconomics: using panel data to reduce sampling error," Working Papers 2003-045, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Kim Oosterlinck & John Landon-lane, 2006.
"Hope Springs Eternal – French Bondholders and the Soviet Repudiation (1915–1919),"
Review of Finance,
European Finance Association, vol. 10(4), pages 507-535, December.
- John Landon-Lane & Kim Oosterlinck, 2005. "Hope springs eternal: French bondholders and the Soviet repudiation (1915-1919)," Working Papers CEB 05-013.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Tomáš Munzi & Petr Hlaváč, 2011. "Inflation Targeting and Its Impact on the Nature of the Money Supply and the Financial Imbalances," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2011(4), pages 435-453.
- Gary Saxonhouse, 2005. "Good deflation/bad deflation and Japanese economic recovery," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 201-218, November.
- Beckworth, David, 2007. "The postbellum deflation and its lessons for today," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 195-214, August.
- Gary Saxonhouse & Robert Stern, 2005. "Reversal of fortune: Macroeconomic policy, International Finance, and Banking in Japan," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 91-100, November.
- He, Qing & Tai-Leung Chong, Terence & Shi, Kang, 2009. "What accounts for Chinese Business Cycle?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 650-661, December.
- Guerrero, Federico & Parker, Elliott, 2006. "Deflation and recession: Finding the empirical link," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 12-17, October.
- Claudio E. V. Borio, 2006. "Monetary and prudential policies at a crossroads? New challenges in the new century," BIS Working Papers 216, Bank for International Settlements.
- Borio, Claudio & Filardo, Andrew J., 2004. "Looking back at the international deflation record," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 287-311, December.
- Faria, João Ricardo & McAdam, Peter, 2012.
"A new perspective on the Gold Standard: Inflation as a population phenomenon,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1358-1370.
- Joao Ricardo Faria & Peter McAdam, 2012. "A new perspective on the Gold Standard: Inflation as a population phenomenon," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0412, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
- Gang Gong & Justin Yifu Lin, 2005.
"Deflationary Expansion : an Overshooting Perspective to the Recent Business Cycle in China,"
Macroeconomics Working Papers
21959, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- Gong, Gang & Lin, Justin Yifu, 2008. "Deflationary expansion: An overshooting perspective to the recent business cycle in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 1-17, March.
- John W. Keating, 2013. "What Do We Learn from Blanchard and Quah Decompositions If Aggregate Demand May Not be Long-Run Neutral?," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201302, University of Kansas, Department of Economics.
Lists
This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10329For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

