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Predictive regressions with panel data

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Author Info

  • Hjalmarsson, Erik

    ()
    (Department of Economics)

Abstract

This paper analyzes econometric inference in predictive regressions in a panel data setting. In a traditional time-series framework, estimation and testing are often made difficult by the endogeneity and near persistence of many forecasting variables; tests of whether the dividend-price ratio predicts stock returns is a prototypical example. I show that, by pooling the data, these econometric issues can be dealt with more easily. When no individual intercepts are included in the pooled regression, the pooled estimator has an asymptotically normal distribution and standard tests can be performed. However, when fixed effects are included in the specification, a second order bias in the fixed effects estimator arises from the endogeneity and persistence of the regressors. A new estimator based on recursive demeaning is proposed and its asymptotic normality is derived; the procedure requires no knowledge of the degree of persistence in the regressors and thus sidesteps the main inferential problems in the time-series case. Since forecasting regressions are typically applied to financial or macroeconomic data, the traditional panel data assumption of cross-sectional independence is likely to be violated. New methods for dealing with common factors in the data are therefore also developed. The analytical results derived in the paper are supported by Monte Carlo evidence.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/2077/2765
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 160.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: 02 Feb 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0160

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, University of Gothenburg, Box 640, SE 405 30 GĂ–TEBORG, Sweden
Phone: 031-773 10 00
Web page: http://www.handels.gu.se/econ/
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Related research

Keywords: Predictive regression; panel data; pooled regression; cross-sectional dependence; stock return predictability; fully modified estimation; local-to-unity;

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References

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  1. Donggyu Sul & Peter C. B. Phillips & Chi-Young Choi, 2005. "Prewhitening Bias in HAC Estimation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(4), pages 517-546, 08.
  2. Donald W.K. Andrews, 2004. "Cross-section Regression with Common Shocks," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm401, Yale School of Management.
  3. Cavanagh, Christopher L. & Elliott, Graham & Stock, James H., 1995. "Inference in Models with Nearly Integrated Regressors," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(05), pages 1131-1147, October.
  4. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2004. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," CESifo Working Paper Series 1331, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Goetzmann, W.N., 1990. "Testing The Predictive Power Of Dividend Yields," Papers fb-_90-12, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
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  7. Campbell, John Y., 2003. "Consumption-based asset pricing," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 803-887 Elsevier.
  8. Lewellen, Jonathan, 2003. "Predicting Returns With Financial Ratios," Working papers 4374-02, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  9. Moon, Hyungsik R. & Phillips, Peter C.B., 2000. "Estimation Of Autoregressive Roots Near Unity Using Panel Data," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(06), pages 927-997, December.
  10. Polk, Christopher & Thompson, Samuel & Vuolteenaho, Tuomo, 2006. "Cross-sectional forecasts of the equity premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 101-141, July.
  11. Campbell, John & Yogo, Motohiro, 2006. "Efficient tests of stock return predictability," Scholarly Articles 3122601, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  12. Phillips, Peter C B & Hansen, Bruce E, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125, January.
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  14. Gregory Mankiw, N. & Shapiro, Matthew D., 1986. "Do we reject too often? : Small sample properties of tests of rational expectations models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 139-145.
  15. Phillips, Peter C.B. & Sul, Donggyu, 2007. "Bias in dynamic panel estimation with fixed effects, incidental trends and cross section dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 162-188, March.
  16. Robert F. Stambaugh, 1999. "Predictive Regressions," NBER Technical Working Papers 0240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Erik Hjalmarsson, 2005. "Estimation of average local-to-unity roots in heterogenous panels," International Finance Discussion Papers 852, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  18. Peter C.B. Phillips & Victor Solo, 1989. "Asymptotics for Linear Processes," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 932, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  19. Peter C.B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1988. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 869R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Apr 1989.
  20. Peter C.B. Phillips & Hyungsik R. Moon, 1999. "Linear Regression Limit Theory for Nonstationary Panel Data," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1222, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  21. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:5:p:1131-47 is not listed on IDEAS
  22. Michael Jansson & Marcelo J. Moreira, 2006. "Optimal Inference in Regression Models with Nearly Integrated Regressors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(3), pages 681-714, 05.
  23. repec:fth:calaec:1-99 is not listed on IDEAS
  24. Hjalmarsson, Erik, 2005. "On the Predictability of Global Stock Returns," Working Papers in Economics 161, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
  25. Lewellen, Jonathan, 2004. "Predicting returns with financial ratios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 209-235, November.
  26. Nelson, Charles R & Kim, Myung J, 1993. " Predictable Stock Returns: The Role of Small Sample Bias," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 641-61, June.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Badi H. Baltagi, 2008. "Forecasting with panel data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 153-173.
  2. Hjalmarsson, Erik, 2005. "On the Predictability of Global Stock Returns," Working Papers in Economics 161, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
  3. Angelica Gonzalez, 2007. "Empirical Likelihood Estimation in Dynamic Panel Models," ESE Discussion Papers 168, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.

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