Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Predicting global stock returns

Contents:

Author Info

  • Erik Hjalmarsson

Abstract

I test for stock return predictability in the largest and most comprehensive data set analyzed so far, using four common forecasting variables: the dividend- and earnings-price ratios, the short interest rate, and the term spread. The data contain over 20,000 monthly observations from 40 international markets, including 24 developed and 16 emerging economies. In addition, I develop new methods for predictive regressions with panel data. Inference based on the standard fixed effects estimator is shown to suffer from severe size distortions in the typical stock return regression, and an alternative robust estimator is proposed. The empirical results indicate that the short interest rate and the term spread are fairly robust predictors of stock returns in developed markets. In contrast, no strong or consistent evidence of predictability is found when considering the earnings- and dividend-price ratios as predictors.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2008/933/default.htm
Download Restriction: no

File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2008/933/ifdp933.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 933.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:933

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 20th Street and Constitution Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20551
Web page: http://www.federalreserve.gov/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Web: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/order.htm

Related research

Keywords: Stocks - Rate of return ; Forecasting ; Econometric models;

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Hashem Pesaran, M. & Yamagata, Takashi, 2008. "Testing slope homogeneity in large panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 50-93, January.
  2. Lewellen, Jonathan, 2004. "Predicting returns with financial ratios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 209-235, November.
  3. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-26, November.
  4. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
  5. Michael Jansson & Marcelo J. Moreira, 2004. "Optimal Inference in Regression Models with Nearly Integrated Regressors," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2047, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  6. John Y. Campbell & Motohiro Yogo, 2003. "Efficient Tests of Stock Return Predictability," NBER Working Papers 10026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Campbell, John & Shiller, Robert, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends," Scholarly Articles 3224293, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  8. Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 773-816.
  9. Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan, 2011. "Predictability of stock returns and asset allocation under structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 60-78, September.
  10. John Y. Campbell, 2002. "Consumption-Based Asset Pricing," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1974, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  11. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2001. "Stock Return Predictability: Is it There?," NBER Working Papers 8207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Donggyu Sul & Peter C. B. Phillips & Chi-Young Choi, 2005. "Prewhitening Bias in HAC Estimation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(4), pages 517-546, 08.
  13. Gregory Mankiw, N. & Shapiro, Matthew D., 1986. "Do we reject too often? : Small sample properties of tests of rational expectations models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 139-145.
  14. Amihud, Yakov & Hurvich, Clifford M., 2004. "Predictive Regressions: A Reduced-Bias Estimation Method," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(04), pages 813-841, December.
  15. John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1995. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," NBER Working Papers 4995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
  17. Hyungsik R. Moon & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1999. "Estimation of Autoregressive Roots Near Unity Using Panel Data," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1224, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  18. Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. " The World Price of Covariance Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 111-57, March.
  19. Kaminsky, Graciela Laura & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2002. "Short-run pain, long-run gain : the effects of financial liberalization," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2912, The World Bank.
  20. Cavanagh, Christopher L. & Elliott, Graham & Stock, James H., 1995. "Inference in Models with Nearly Integrated Regressors," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(05), pages 1131-1147, October.
  21. Robert F. Stambaugh, 1999. "Predictive Regressions," NBER Technical Working Papers 0240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Peter Phillips & Hyungsik Moon, 2000. "Nonstationary panel data analysis: an overview of some recent developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 263-286.
  23. Peter C. B. Phillips & Hyungsik R. Moon, 1999. "Linear Regression Limit Theory for Nonstationary Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1057-1112, September.
  24. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1993. "The Risk and Predictability of International Equity Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 527-66.
  25. Lior Menzly & Tano Santos & Pietro Veronesi, 2004. "Understanding Predictability," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(1), pages 1-47, February.
  26. Ferson, Wayne E. & Harvey, Campbell R., 1994. "Sources of risk and expected returns in global equity markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 775-803, September.
  27. Polk, Christopher & Thompson, Samuel & Vuolteenaho, Tuomo, 2006. "Cross-sectional forecasts of the equity premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 101-141, July.
  28. Philippe Jorion & William N. Goetzmann, 1999. "Global Stock Markets in the Twentieth Century," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(3), pages 953-980, 06.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Hjalmarsson, Erik & Manchev, Petar, 2012. "Characteristic-based mean-variance portfolio choice," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1392-1401.
  2. Deniz Baglan & Emre Yoldas, 2013. "Government debt and macroeconomic activity: a predictive analysis for advanced economies," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-05, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Ralph S.J. Koijen & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2011. "Predictability of Returns and Cash Flows," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 467-491, December.
  4. Tim Bollerslev & James Marrone & Lai Xu & Hao Zhou, 2011. "Stock return predictability and variance risk premia: statistical inference and international evidence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-52, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Erik Hjalmarsson, 2007. "The Stambaugh bias in panel predictive regressions," International Finance Discussion Papers 914, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Nitschka, Thomas, 2013. "The impact of (global) business cycle risk on the German and British stock markets: Evidence from the first age of globalization," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 118-124.
  7. Guidolin, Massimo & McMillan, David G. & Wohar, Mark E., 2013. "Time varying stock return predictability: Evidence from US sectors," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 34-40.
  8. Chen, Sichong, 2012. "The predictability of aggregate Japanese stock returns: Implications of dividend yield," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 284-304.
  9. Westerlund, Joakim & Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 2013. "On the implementation and use of factor-augmented regressions in panel data," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 3-11.
  10. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2011. "Forecasting the Equity Risk Premium: The Role of Technical Indicators," Working Papers CoFie-02-2011, Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics.
  11. Thomas Nitschka, 2012. "Global and country-specific business cycle risk in time-varying excess returns on asset markets," Working Papers 2012-10, Swiss National Bank.
  12. McMillan, David G., 2013. "Consumption and stock prices: Evidence from a small international panel," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 76-88.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:933. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kris Vajs).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.