Predictive Regressions: A Reduced-Bias Estimation Method
AbstractStandard predictive regressions produce biased coefficient estimates in small samples when the regressors are Gaussian first-order autoregressive with errors that are correlated with the error series of the dependent variable; see Stambaugh (1999) for the single-regressor model. This paper proposes a direct and convenient method to obtain reduced-bias estimators for single and multiple regressor models by employing an augmented regression, adding a proxy for the errors in the autoregressive model. We derive bias expressions for both the ordinary least squares and our reduced-bias estimated coefficients. For the standard errors of the estimated predictive coefficients we develop a heuristic estimator which performs well in simulations, for both the single-predictor model and an important specification of the multiple- predictor model. The effectiveness of our method is demonstrated by simulations and by empirical estimates of common predictive models in finance. Our empirical results show that some of the predictive variables that were significant under ordinary least squares become insignificant under our estimation procedure.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series Econometrics with number 0412008.
Length: 63 pages
Date of creation: 15 Dec 2004
Date of revision:
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 63
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Stock Returns; Dividend Yields; Autoregressive Models;
Other versions of this item:
- Amihud, Yakov & Hurvich, Clifford M., 2004. "Predictive Regressions: A Reduced-Bias Estimation Method," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(04), pages 813-841, December.
- C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
- C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
- C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
- C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
- C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
- C8 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-12-20 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2004-12-20 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2004-12-20 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-FIN-2004-12-20 (Finance)
- NEP-FIN-2004-12-22 (Finance)
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