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Sources of Risk and Expected Returns in Global Equity Markets

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Author Info
Wayne E. Ferson
Campbell R. Harvey

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Abstract

This paper empirically examines multifactor asset pricing models for the returns and expected returns on eighteen national equity markets. The factors are chosen to measure global economic risks. Although previous studies do not reject the unconditional mean- variance efficiency of a world market portfolio, our evidence indicates that the tests are low in power, and the world market betas do not provide a good explanation of cross-sectional differences in average returns. Multiple beta models provide an improved explanation of the equity returns.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4622.

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Date of creation: Jan 1994
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4622

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Breeden, Douglas T., 1979. "An intertemporal asset pricing model with stochastic consumption and investment opportunities," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 265-296, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-87, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Grinblatt, Mark & Titman, Sheridan, 1987. "The Relation between Mean-Variance Efficiency and Arbitrage Pricing," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(1), pages 97-112, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Chamberlain, Gary & Rothschild, Michael, 1983. "Arbitrage, Factor Structure, and Mean-Variance Analysis on Large Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1281-304, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Stulz, Rene M, 1981. "On the Effects of Barriers to International Investment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 923-34, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. French, Kenneth R. & Poterba, James M., 1991. "Were Japanese stock prices too high?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 337-363, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Campbell, John Y & Hamao, Yasushi, 1992. " Predictable Stock Returns in the United States and Japan: A Study of Long-Term Capital Market Integration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 43-69, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Solnik, Bruno, 1983. " International Arbitrage Pricing Theory," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(2), pages 449-57, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Korajczyk, Robert A. & Viallet, Claude J., 1992. "Equity risk premia and the pricing of foreign exchange risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 199-219, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Lehmann, Bruce N. & Modest, David M., 1988. "The empirical foundations of the arbitrage pricing theory," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 213-254, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-36, May-June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Breeden, Douglas T & Gibbons, Michael R & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1989. " Empirical Tests of the Consumption-Oriented CAPM," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 231-62, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. " The World Price of Covariance Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 111-57, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Braun, Phillip A & Nelson, Daniel B & Sunier, Alain M, 1995. " Good News, Bad News, Volatility, and Betas," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1575-1603, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Cumby, Robert E & Glen, Jack D, 1990. " Evaluating the Performance of International Mutual Funds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 497-521, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Shanken, Jay, 1992. "On the Estimation of Beta-Pricing Models," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 1-33. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Cho, D Chinhyung & Eun, Cheol S & Senbet, Lemma W, 1986. " International Arbitrage Pricing Theory: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(2), pages 313-29, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Hamao, Yasushi, 1988. "An empirical examination of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory : Using Japanese data," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 45-61, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Huberman, Gur & Kandel, Shmuel & Stambaugh, Robert F, 1987. " Mimicking Portfolios and Exact Arbitrage Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 1-9, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Rodolfo Q. Aquino, 2004. "A multifactor model of Philippine stock returns using latent macro risk factors," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(15), pages 961-968, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Campbell R. Harvey, 1994. "Conditional Asset Allocation in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 4623, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Campbell R. Harvey, 1994. "Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 4621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Vassalou, Maria, 2000. "Exchange Rate And Foreign Inflation Risk Premiums In Global Equity Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 2448, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Lombardo, Davide & Pagano, Marco, 1999. "Legal Determinants of the Return on Equity," CEPR Discussion Papers 2275, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1999. "Economic, Financial, and Fundamental Global Risk In and Out of the EMU," NBER Working Papers 6967, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Carlos Enrique Carrasco Gutierrez & Wagner Piazza Gaglianone, 2008. "Evaluating Asset Pricing Models in a Fama-French Framework," Working Papers Series 175, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  8. Erik Hjalmarsson, 2008. "Predicting global stock returns," International Finance Discussion Papers 933, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  9. Robin Brooks & Marco Del Negro, 2003. "Firm-level evidence on international stock market movement," Working Paper 2003-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Charles, Lee & David, Ng, 2002. "Corruption and International Valuation: Does Virtue Pay?," MPRA Paper 590, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2006. [Downloadable!]
  11. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1994. "The Internationalization of Equity Markets," NBER Working Papers 4590, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Juan-Pedro Gómez & Richard Priestly & Fernando Zapatero, 2003. "Keeping Up with the Joneses: An International Asset Pricing Model," Economics Working Papers 694, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
  13. Juan Pedro Gomez, 2005. "An International Capm With Consumption Externalities And Non-Financial Wealth," Working Papers Economia wp05-08, Instituto de Empresa, Area of Economic Environment. [Downloadable!]
  14. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1994. "Time-Varying World Market Integration," NBER Working Papers 4843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Hodrick, Robert J & Vassalou, Maria, 2001. "Do We Need Multi-Country Models to Explain Exchange Rate, Interest Rate and Bond Return Dynamics?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3056, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Steven Beach & Alexei Orlov, 2007. "An application of the Black–Litterman model with EGARCH-M-derived views for international portfolio management," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 147-166, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Marc-Gregor Czaja & Hendrik Scholz & Marco Wilkens, 2009. "Interest rate risk of German financial institutions: the impact of level, slope, and curvature of the term structure," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 1-26, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Marco Del Negro & Robin Brooks, 2005. "A Latent Factor Model with Global, Country, and Industry Shocks for International Stock Returns," IMF Working Papers 05/52, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  19. Dahlquist, Magnus & Sallstrom, Torbjorn, 2002. "An Evaluation of International Asset Pricing Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 3145, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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