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International Portfolio Diversification: The Role of Risk and Return

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Author Info
César Calderón
Norman Loayza
Luis Servén

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Abstract

This paper explores empirically the role of risk and return factors in the observed evolution of net foreign asset positions of a large number of industrial and developing economies. The paper adopts a dynamic approach in which investors’ portfolios adjust gradually to their long-run equilibrium, which is characterized by a standard Tobin-Markowitz framework. This equilibrium condition is estimated using a new data set on foreign assets and liabilities for a large number of industrial and developing countries spanning the period from 1965 to the present. The dynamic panel estimation procedure allows for unrestricted short-run heterogeneity across countries, using the Pooled Mean Group estimator of Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (1999). The empirical results lend considerable support to the model when applied to countries with low capital controls and/or high and upper-middle income. The results for countries with high capital controls and, especially, lower-income countries are less supportive of the stock equilibrium model.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 94.

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Date of creation: Apr 2001
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:94

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  1. Giancarlo Corsetti & Nouriel Roubini, 1991. "Fiscal Deficits, Public Debt and Government Solvency: Evidence from OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 3658, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Andrew Berg & Catherine Pattillo, 1999. "Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 46(2), pages 1. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Pesaran,H.M. & Shin,Y., 1995. "Long-Run Structural Modelling," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9419, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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  5. Karen K. Lewis, 1999. "Trying to Explain Home Bias in Equities and Consumption," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(2), pages 571-608, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 1995. "An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9514, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  7. Robertson, D & Symons, J, 1992. "Some Strange Properties of Panel Data Estimators," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(2), pages 175-89, April-Jun. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Pesaran, H. & Smith, R. & Im, K.S., 1995. "Dynamic Linear Models for Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9503, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  9. Assaf Razin, 1995. "The Dynamic-Optimizing Approach to the Current Account: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 4334, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Pesaran, M.H., 1996. "The Role of Economic Theory in Modelling the Long Run," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9612, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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  11. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 1999. "The External Wealth of Nations: Measures of Foreign Assets and Liabilities for Industrial and Developing Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 2231, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Ricardo J. Caballero, 1997. "Aggregate Investment," NBER Working Papers 6264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Aart Kraay & Norman Loayza & Luis Servén & Jaume Ventura, 2000. "Country portfolios," Economics Working Papers 913, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Phillips, Peter C B & Hansen, Bruce E, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Peter C.B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1988. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 869R, Cowles Foundation, Yale University, revised Apr 1989. [Downloadable!]
  16. Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria & Razin, Assaf, 1996. "Current Account Sustainability: Selected East Asian and Latin American Experiences," CEPR Discussion Papers 1509, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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