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Dynamic Panel Probit Models for Current Account Reversals and their Efficient Estimation

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  • Guilherme Valle Moura

    (Christian Albrechts Universitaet zu Kiel)

  • Roman Liesenfeld

    (Christian Albrechts Universitaet zu Kiel)

  • Jean-Francois Richard

    (University of Pittsburgh)

Abstract

We use panel probit models with unobserved heterogeneity and serially correlated errors in order to analyze the determinants and the dynamics of current-account reversals for a panel of developing and emerging countries. The likelihood evaluation of these models requires high-dimensional integration for which we use a generic procedure known as Efficient Importance Sampling (EIS). Our empirical results suggest that current account balance, terms of trades, foreign reserves and concessional debt are important determinants of the probability of current-account reversal. Furthermore we find under all specifications evidence for serially correlated error components and weak evidence for state dependence. --

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Paper provided by ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics] in its series Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] with number 200807141048250.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:anp:en2008:200807141048250

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