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Current Accounts in the Long and Short Run

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Author Info
Aart Kraay
Jaume Ventura

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Abstract

Faced with income fluctuations, countries smooth their consumption by raising savings when income is high, and vice versa. How much of these savings do countries invest at home and abroad? In other words, what are the effects of fluctuations in savings on domestic investment and the current account? In the long run, we find that countries invest the marginal unit of savings in domestic and foreign assets in the same proportions as in their initial portfolio, so that the latter is remarkably stable. In the short run, we find that countries invest the marginal unit of savings mostly in foreign assets, and only gradually do they rebalance their portfolio back to its original composition. This means that countries not only try to smooth consumption, but also domestic investment. To achieve this, they use foreign assets as a buffer stock.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9030.

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Date of creation: Jun 2002
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9030

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Aart Kraay & Jaume Ventura, 2000. "Current Accounts In Debtor And Creditor Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(4), pages 1137-1166, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1982. "Aggregate Spending and the Terms of Trade: Is There a Laursen-Metzler Effect?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 97(2), pages 251-70, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Martin Feldstein & Charles Horioka, 1980. "Domestic Savings and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 0310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Karen K. Lewis, 1999. "Trying to Explain Home Bias in Equities and Consumption," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(2), pages 571-608, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Torsten Persson & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1983. "Current Account Dynamics and the Terms of Trade: Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Two Generations Later," NBER Working Papers 1129, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Ricardo J. Caballero, 1997. "Aggregate Investment," NBER Working Papers 6264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1983. "Real Interest Rates, Home Goods, and Optimal External Borrowing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 141-53, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Aart Kraay & Norman Loayza & Luis Servén & Jaume Ventura, 2000. "Country portfolios," Economics Working Papers 913, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Intertemporal Approach to the Current Account," NBER Working Papers 4893, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Reuven Glick & Kenneth Rogoff, 1992. "Global versus country-specific productivity shocks and the current account," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 92-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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  11. Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1992. "Estimating Long-Run Relationships From Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9215, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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  12. Deaton, A. & Grosh, M., 1998. "Consumption," Papers 191, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
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  14. Svensson, Lars E O & Razin, Assaf, 1983. "The Terms of Trade and the Current Account: The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 97-125, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Matsuyama, Kiminori, 1987. "Current account dynamics in a finite horizon model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3-4), pages 299-313, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Tesar, Linda L., 1991. "Savings, investment and international capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 55-78, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Robert E. Lucas & Jr., 1967. "Adjustment Costs and the Theory of Supply," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75, pages 321. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Claudia Canals & Xavier Gabaix & Josep M. Vilarrubia & David Weinstein, 2007. "Trade patterns, trade balances and idiosyncratic shocks," Banco de España Working Papers 0721, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  2. Alberto Abadíe & Javier Gardeazábal, 2005. "Terrorism and the World Economy," DFAEII Working Papers 200519, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Jens R. Clausen & Magda E. Kandil, 2005. "On Cyclicality in the Current and Financial Accounts: Evidence from Nine Industrial Countries," IMF Working Papers 05/56, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Giorgio Fazio & Ronald MacDonald & Jacques Melitz, 2005. "Trade Costs, Trade Balances and Current Accounts: An Application of Gravity to Multilateral Trade," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Sebastian Edwards, 2004. "Thirty Years of Current Account Imbalances, Current Account Reversals and Sudden Stops," NBER Working Papers 10276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Alberto Bagnai, 2006. "Structural breaks and the twin deficits hypothesis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 137-155, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Sebastian Edwards, 2005. "Is the U.S. Current Account Deficit Sustainable? And If Not, How Costly is Adjustment Likely To Be?," NBER Working Papers 11541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Cédric Tille & Eric van Wincoop, 2007. "International capital flows," Staff Reports 280, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Sebastian Edwards, 2007. "On Current Account Surpluses and the Correction of Global Imbalances," NBER Working Papers 12904, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Jaume Ventura, 2002. "Towards a Theory of Current Accounts," NBER Working Papers 9163, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Huseyin Kalyoncu & Naveed Naqvi & Christopher Tsoukis, 2004. "Industrial Production and the Current Account: Theory and Panel Data Evidence from the OECD," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 72, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  12. João Sousa Andrade, 2006. "Mobilidade do Capital e Sustentabilidade Externa: uma aplicação da tese de F-H a Portugal (1910-2004)," GEMF Working Papers 2006-04, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra. [Downloadable!]
  13. Jarko Fidrmuc, 2003. "The Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle and Twin Deficits in Selected Countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 135-152, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Jerry Coakley & Ana-Maria Fuertes & Fabio Spagnolo, 2004. "The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle is not as bad as you think," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 17, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  15. Inaki Erauskin-Iurrita, 2004. "The current account and the new rule in a two-country world," International Finance 0412004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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