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Empirical Perspectives on Long-Term External Debt

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Author Info
Philip R. Lane (IIIS and Economics, Trinity College Dublin)

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Abstract

In this paper, we paint a statistical portrait of the determination of external debt for a set of low- and middle-income countries. The goal is to facilitate thinking about the role played by international capital flows in the development process. Empirically, we find that external debt is strongly increasing in the level of initial output. This remains true even when we control for variation in productivity and creditworthiness. More open economies also are found to have higher debt levels.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Berkeley Electronic Press in its journal The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): topics.4 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages:
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Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:topics.4:y:2004:i:1:n:1

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Related research
Keywords: external debt; repudiation; productivity;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
O10 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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    Other versions:
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  4. Eaton, Jonathan & Fernandez, Raquel, 1995. "Sovereign debt," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 3, pages 2031-2077 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Romain Wacziarg, 2002. "Review of Easterly's The Elusive Quest for Growth," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 907-918, September.
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  7. Philip Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2001. "THE EXTERNAL WEALTH OF NATIONS: Measures of Foreign Assets and Liabilities For Industrial and Developing Countries," CEG Working Papers 20012, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Jeanne, Olivier, 2003. "The Elusive Gains from International Financial Integration," CEPR Discussion Papers 3902, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Lane, Philip R, 2001. "International Trade and Economic Convergence: The Credit Channel," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(2), pages 221-40, April.
  17. Philip Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2001. "Long-Term Capital Movements," CEG Working Papers 20018, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Aaron Tornell & Philip R. Lane, 1999. "The Voracity Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 22-46, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Milesi-Ferretti, G-M & Razin, A, 1996. "Current-Account Sustainability," Princeton Studies in International Economics 81, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
  20. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2000. "External Capital Structure: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2583, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Kaufmann, Daniel & Kraay, Aart & Zoido-Lobaton, Pablo, 1999. "Aggregating governance indicators," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2195, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  22. Albuquerque, Rui, 2003. "The composition of international capital flows: risk sharing through foreign direct investment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 353-383, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Albert Marcet & Ramon Marimon, 1992. "Communication, commitment, and growth," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 74, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  24. Maddala, G S & Nelson, Forrest D, 1974. "Maximum Likelihood Methods for Models of Markets in Disequilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(6), pages 1013-30, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Lane, Philip R, 1999. "North-South Lending with Moral Hazard and Repudiation Risk," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 7(1), pages 50-58, February.
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Reichlin, Pietro, 2006. "Relating Output and Volatility in a Model of International Risk-Sharing with Limited Commitment," CEPR Discussion Papers 5557, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Ziesemer,Thomas, 2005. "Unstable Debt/GDP Dynamics as an Early Warning Indicator," Research Memoranda 016, Maastricht : MERIT, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology. [Downloadable!]
  3. Laura Alfaro & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Vadym Volosovych, 2005. "Capital Flows in a Globalized World: The Role of Policies and Institutions," NBER Working Papers 11696, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Hoffmann, M., 2002. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between the Level of Infrastructure and Capital Inflows," CEG Working Papers 20024, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Laura Alfaro & Vadym Volosovych, 2003. "Why doesn’t Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries? An Empirical Investigation," Working Papers 2003-01, Department of Economics, University of Houston. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "Serial Default and the "Paradox" of Rich to Poor Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 10296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Genevieve Verdier, 2003. "What Drives Long-term Capital Flows? A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation," Macroeconomics 0310011, EconWPA, revised 14 Jul 2005. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2007. "The Military Expenditure-External Debt Nexus: New Evidence From A Panel Of Middle Eastern Countries," Monash Economics Working Papers 17/07, Monash University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. André Lince de Faria & Paolo Mauro, 2005. "Institutions and the External Capital Structure of Countries," IMF Working Papers 04/236, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Kevin Cowan & Jose De Gregorio, 2005. "International Borrowing, Capital Controls and the Exchange Rate: Lessons from Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 322, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Corinne Deléchat & Smita Wagh & Gustavo Ramirez & John Wakeman-Linn, 2009. "Sub-Saharan Africa's Integration in the Global Financial Markets," IMF Working Papers 09/114, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  12. Francesco Caselli & James Feyrer, 2005. "The Marginal Product of Capital," NBER Working Papers 11551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Philip R. Lane, 2008. "The Macroeconomics of Financial Integration: A European Perspective," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp265, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
  14. Menzie D. Chinn & Eswar S. Prasad, 2000. "Medium-Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries: An Empirical Exploration," NBER Working Papers 7581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2000. "External Capital Structure: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2583, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Presbitero, Andrea F., 2008. "The Debt-Growth Nexus in Poor Countries: A Reassessment," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 2(30), pages 1-28. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Mathias Hoffmann, 2002. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between the Level of Infrastructure and Capital Inflows," Trinity Economics Papers 200210, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  18. André Faria & Martín Minnoni & Aleksandar Zaklan & Paolo Mauro, 2006. "The External Financing of Emerging Market Countries: Evidence from Two Waves of Financial Globalization," IMF Working Papers 06/205, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  19. Alexandre Dmitriev, 2008. "Technological Transfers, Limited Commitment and Growth," Discussion Papers 2008-05, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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