IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdr/borrec/932.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Gross Capital Flows and their long-term Determinants for Developing Economies: A Panel Co-integration Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Fernando Arias

    (Banco de la República de Colombia)

  • David Delgado

    (Banco de la República de Colombia)

  • Daniel Parra

    (Universidad Militar Nueva Granada)

  • Hernán Rincón-Castro

    (Banco de la República de Colombia)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to estimate a model for gross capital flows for a sample of developing economies and assess their long-term determinants by using a panel co-integration approach. Results indicate that there is a co-integration relationship between key push and pull factors and gross capital inflows. Particularly, FDI inflows have a positive, long-term association with GDP growth, and a negative one with public debt and the interest rate differential (the latter being a puzzling finding), while portfolio inflows are connected negatively to foreign asset prices and positively to international financial market volatility. Unexpectedly, interest rate differentials do not exhibit a long-term relationship with the latter, which challenges the standard portfolio assumption -that uncovered interest parity is satisfied, at least, in the long term-. As for disaggregate outflows, no long-term association between them and their drivers could be obtained.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernando Arias & David Delgado & Daniel Parra & Hernán Rincón-Castro, 2016. "Gross Capital Flows and their long-term Determinants for Developing Economies: A Panel Co-integration Approach," Borradores de Economia 932, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:932
    DOI: 10.32468/be.932
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.32468/be.932
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.32468/be.932?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    2. Nelson C. Mark & Masao Ogaki & Donggyu Sul, 2005. "Dynamic Seemingly Unrelated Cointegrating Regressions," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 797-820.
    3. Alexander Chudik & Kamiar Mohaddes & M. Hashem Pesaran & Mehdi Raissi, 2016. "Long-Run Effects in Large Heterogeneous Panel Data Models with Cross-Sectionally Correlated Errors," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of man Ullah, volume 36, pages 85-135, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    4. Ayhan Kose, M. & Prasad, Eswar S. & Terrones, Marco E., 2009. "Does openness to international financial flows raise productivity growth?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 554-580, June.
    5. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2001. "The external wealth of nations: measures of foreign assets and liabilities for industrial and developing countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 263-294, December.
    6. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Chiara Osbat, 2004. "Some cautions on the use of panel methods for integrated series of macroeconomic data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 322-340, December.
    7. Moon, H.R.Hyungsik Roger & Perron, Benoit, 2004. "Testing for a unit root in panels with dynamic factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 81-126, September.
    8. Luis Fernando Melo & Hernán Rincón, 2013. "Choques externos y precios de los activos en Latinoamérica antes y después de la quiebra de Lehman Brothers," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 31(71), pages 1-35, June.
    9. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    10. Laura Alfaro & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Vadym Volosovych, 2014. "Sovereigns, Upstream Capital Flows, And Global Imbalances," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(5), pages 1240-1284, October.
    11. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    12. Chang, Yoosoon, 2004. "Bootstrap unit root tests in panels with cross-sectional dependency," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 263-293, June.
    13. Sushil Bikhchandani & Sunil Sharma, 2001. "Herd Behavior in Financial Markets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(3), pages 1-1.
    14. Papaioannou, Elias, 2009. "What drives international financial flows? Politics, institutions and other determinants," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 269-281, March.
    15. Alejandro Izquierdo & Randall Romero & Ernesto Talvi, 2008. "Booms and Busts in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," Research Department Publications 4569, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    16. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    17. Felices, Guillermo & Orskaug, Bjorn-Erik, 2008. "Estimating the determinants of capital flows to emerging market economies: a maximum likelihood disequilibrium approach," Bank of England working papers 354, Bank of England.
    18. Hui Tong & Shang-Jin Wei, 2011. "The Composition Matters: Capital Inflows and Liquidity Crunch During a Global Economic Crisis," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(6), pages 2023-2052.
    19. Montiel, Peter & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1999. "Do capital controls and macroeconomic policies influence the volume and composition of capital flows? Evidence from the 1990s," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 619-635, August.
    20. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2012. "Capital flows, push versus pull factors and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 341-356.
    21. Alexander D. Rothenberg & Francis E. Warnock, 2011. "Sudden Flight and True Sudden Stops," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 509-524, August.
    22. Chuhan, Punam & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Popper, Helen, 1996. "International capital flows : do short-term investment and direct investment differ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1669, The World Bank.
    23. Jorg Breitung, 2005. "A Parametric approach to the Estimation of Cointegration Vectors in Panel Data," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 151-173.
    24. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2009. "Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(1), pages 9-62.
    25. L. Vanessa Smith & Stephen Leybourne & Tae-Hwan Kim & Paul Newbold, 2004. "More powerful panel data unit root tests with an application to mean reversion in real exchange rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(2), pages 147-170.
    26. Choi, In, 2002. "Instrumental variables estimation of a nearly nonstationary, heterogeneous error component model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 1-32, July.
    27. David Roodman, 2009. "How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 9(1), pages 86-136, March.
    28. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    29. Mr. G. Terrier & Mr. Rodrigo O. Valdes & Mr. Camilo E Tovar Mora & Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau & Carlos Fernandez Valdovinos & Ms. Mercedes Garcia-Escribano & Mr. Carlos I. Medeiros & Man-Keung Tang & Miss M, 2011. "Policy Instruments to Lean Against the Wind in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 2011/159, International Monetary Fund.
    30. Peter C. B. Phillips & Hyungsik R. Moon, 1999. "Linear Regression Limit Theory for Nonstationary Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1057-1112, September.
    31. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    32. Forbes, Kristin J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2012. "Capital flow waves: Surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 235-251.
    33. Broner, Fernando & Didier, Tatiana & Erce, Aitor & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2013. "Gross capital flows: Dynamics and crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 113-133.
    34. Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Cédric Tille, 2011. "The great retrenchment: international capital flows during the global financial crisis [‘The great trade collapse: what caused it and what does it mean?’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 26(66), pages 289-346.
    35. Obstfeld, Maurice, 2012. "Financial flows, financial crises, and global imbalances," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 469-480.
    36. Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul, 2003. "Cointegration Vector Estimation by Panel DOLS and Long‐run Money Demand," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(5), pages 655-680, December.
    37. Alejandro Izquierdo & Randall Romero & Ernesto Talvi, 2008. "Booms and Busts in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," Research Department Publications 4569, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    38. Contessi, Silvio & De Pace, Pierangelo & Francis, Johanna L., 2013. "The cyclical properties of disaggregated capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 528-555.
    39. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    40. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    41. Joseph P. Byrne & Norbert Fiess, 2011. "International capital flows to emerging and developing countries: national and global determinants," Working Papers 2011_01, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    42. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat, 2011. "Global imbalances and the financial crisis: Link or no link?," BIS Working Papers 346, Bank for International Settlements.
    43. Groen, Jan J J & Kleibergen, Frank, 2003. "Likelihood-Based Cointegration Analysis in Panels of Vector Error-Correction Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(2), pages 295-318, April.
    44. Calderon, Cesar & Kubota, Megumi, 2012. "Gross inflows gone wild : gross capital inflows, credit booms and crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6270, The World Bank.
    45. Lee, Kevin & Pesaran, M Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1997. "Growth and Convergence in Multi-country Empirical Stochastic Solow Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 357-392, July-Aug..
    46. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    47. Cont, Rama & Bouchaud, Jean-Philipe, 2000. "Herd Behavior And Aggregate Fluctuations In Financial Markets," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(2), pages 170-196, June.
    48. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    49. Janus, Thorsten & Riera-Crichton, Daniel, 2013. "International gross capital flows: New uses of balance of payments data and application to financial crises," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 16-28.
    50. David Roodman, 2006. "How to Do xtabond2," North American Stata Users' Group Meetings 2006 8, Stata Users Group.
    51. Rolf Larsson & Johan Lyhagen & Mickael Lothgren, 2001. "Likelihood-based cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(1), pages 1-41.
    52. László Mátyás & Patrick Sevestre (ed.), 2008. "The Econometrics of Panel Data," Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics, Springer, number 978-3-540-75892-1, July-Dece.
    53. Philip Lane, 2013. "Financial Globalisation and the Crisis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 555-580, July.
    54. Verdier, Genevieve, 2008. "What drives long-term capital flows A theoretical and empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 120-142, January.
    55. Salvador Valdés-Prieto & Marcelo Soto, 1998. "The Effectiveness of Capital Controls: Theory and Evidence from Chile," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 25(2), pages 133-164, January.
    56. Lane, Philip & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, "undated". "External Wealth of Nations," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics extwealth, Boston College Department of Economics.
    57. Wu, Jyh-Lin, 2000. "Mean reversion of the current account: evidence from the panel data unit-root test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 215-222, February.
    58. Bank for International Settlements, 2009. "Capital flows and emerging market economies," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 33, december.
    59. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jorge Hernán Toro-Córdoba & Fredy Gamboa-Estrada & Laura Viviana León-Díaz & Martha López & Lucía Arango-Lozano & Diego Alejandro Martínez-Cruz & Luis Fernando Melo-Velandia & Carlos Andrés Quicazán-M, 2023. "Flujos de Capital de Portafolio en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, issue 105, pages 1-103, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Arias, Fernando & Parra-Amado, Daniel & Garrido, Daira, 2013. "¿Responden los diferentes tipos de flujos de capitales a los mismos fundamentos y en el mismo grado? : evidencia reciente para países emergentes," Chapters, in: Rincón-Castro, Hernán & Velasco, Andrés M. (ed.), Flujos de capitales, choques externos y respuestas de política en países emergentes, chapter 2, pages 53-81, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Breitung, Jörg & Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem, 2005. "Unit roots and cointegration in panels," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,42, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Koepke, Robin, 2015. "What Drives Capital Flows to Emerging Markets? A Survey of the Empirical Literature," MPRA Paper 62770, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Qureshi, Mahvash S., 2018. "Taming the Tide of Capital Flows: A Policy Guide," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262037165, December.
    5. Nataliia Osina, 2021. "Global governance and gross capital flows dynamics," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(3), pages 463-493, August.
    6. In Choi, 2013. "Panel Cointegration," Working Papers 1208, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy).
    7. Gabriel Bruneau & Kevin Moran, 2017. "Exchange rate fluctuations and labour market adjustments in Canadian manufacturing industries," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 50(1), pages 72-93, February.
    8. Cavallaro, Eleonora & Cutrini, Eleonora, 2019. "Distance and beyond: What drives financial flows to emerging economies?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 533-550.
    9. Eleonora Cavallaro & Eleonora Cutrini, 2018. "Institutional quality and cross-border asset trade: are banks less worried about diversification abroad?," Working Papers in Public Economics 186, University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Economics and Law.
    10. Bonizzi, Bruno, 2017. "Institutional investors’ allocation to emerging markets: A panel approach to asset demand," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 47-64.
    11. Calderón, César & Kubota, Megumi, 2019. "Ride the Wild Surf: An investigation of the drivers of surges in capital inflows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 112-136.
    12. Monica Singhania & Neha Saini, 2018. "Determinants of FPI in Developed and Developing Countries," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 19(1), pages 187-213, February.
    13. Jaunky, Vishal Chandr, 2012. "Is there a material Kuznets curve for aluminium? evidence from rich countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 296-307.
    14. Hernandez-Vega, Marco, 2019. "Estimating Capital Flows To Emerging Market Economies With Heterogeneous Panels," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(5), pages 2068-2088, July.
    15. Sean Holly & Mehdi Raissi, 2009. "The Macroeconomic Effects of European Financial Development: A Heterogenous Panel Analysis," Working Paper / FINESS 1.4, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    16. Byrne, Joseph P. & Fiess, Norbert, 2016. "International capital flows to emerging markets: National and global determinants," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 82-100.
    17. Valérie Mignon & Christophe Hurlin, 2007. "Une synthèse des tests de cointégration sur données de panel," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 180(4), pages 241-265.
    18. Christian Friedrich & Pierre Guérin, 2020. "The Dynamics of Capital Flow Episodes," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(5), pages 969-1003, August.
    19. Xingwang Qian & Andreas Steiner, 2014. "International Reserves and the Composition of Foreign Equity Investment," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 379-409, May.
    20. Mercado, Rogelio V., 2019. "Capital flow transitions: Domestic factors and episodes of gross capital inflows," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 251-264.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    gross capital flows; long-term determinants; developing economies; panel co-integration approach;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:932. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Clorith Angélica Bahos Olivera (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/brcgvco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.