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Herd Behavior And Aggregate Fluctuations In Financial Markets

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Author Info
Cont, Rama
Bouchaud, Jean-Philipe
Abstract

We present a simple model of a stock market where a random communication structure between agents generically gives rise to heavy tails in the distribution of stock price variations in the form of an exponentially truncated power law, similar to distributions observed in recent empirical studies of high-frequency market data. Our model provides a link between two well-known market phenomena: the heavy tails observed in the distribution of stock market returns on one hand and herding behavior in financial markets on the other hand. In particular, our study suggests a relation between the excess kurtosis observed in asset returns, the market order flow, and the tendency of market participants to imitate each other.

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File URL: http://journals.cambridge.org/abstract_S1365100500015029
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Macroeconomic Dynamics.

Volume (Year): 4 (2000)
Issue (Month): 02 (June)
Pages: 170-196
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:4:y:2000:i:02:p:170-196_01

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  2. Didier Sornette & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2005. "Importance of Positive Feedbacks and Over-confidence in a Self-Fulfilling Ising Model of Financial Markets," Quantitative Finance Papers cond-mat/0503607, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2005. [Downloadable!]
  3. Paul Jefferies & Michael Hart & Neil Johnson & P.M. Hui, 2001. "From market games to real-world markets," OFRC Working Papers Series 2001mf02, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Oliver Hein & Michael Schwind & Markus Spiwoks, 2008. "Frankfurt Artificial Stock Market: a microscopic stock market model with heterogeneous interacting agents in small-world communication networks," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 59-71, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Barbara Alemanni & José Renato Haas Ornelas, 2006. "Herding Behavior by Equity Foreign Investors on Emerging Markets," Working Papers Series 125, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  7. Valentyn Panchenko & Sergiy Gerasymchuk & Oleg V. Pavlov, 2007. "Asset price dynamics with small world interactions under hetereogeneous beliefs," Working Papers 149, Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Venice. [Downloadable!]
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  11. A. Corcos & J. -P. Eckmann & A. Malaspinas & Y. Malevergne & D. Sornette, 2001. "Imitation and contrarian behavior: hyperbolic bubbles, crashes and chaos," Quantitative Finance Papers cond-mat/0109410, arXiv.org. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Makoto Nirei, 2008. "Self-organized criticality in a herd behavior model of financial markets," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 89-97, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. S. Reimann & A. Tupak, 2007. "Prices are macro-observables! Stylized facts from evolutionary finance," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 313-331, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Yang, J-H.S. & Satchell, S.E., 2003. "Endogenous Correlation," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0321, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
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