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Ride the wild surf : an investigation of the drivers of surges in capital inflows

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  • Calderon, Cesar
  • Kubota, Megumi

Abstract

Over the past 15 years, gross inflows to industrial and developing countries have enjoyed a wild ride. After reaching record highs in the run-up to the global financial crisis, they collapsed dramatically in 2008-09. As signs of global recovery reappeared, capital inflows resumed although at different speeds. The recovery in flows was faster and sharper in developing countries. This paper aims at understanding the (domestic and external) drivers of these surges in gross inflows using quarterly data for 67 countries from 1975 to 2010. It finds that domestic and external factors have significant explanatory power in driving surges of inflows. This finding holds for the sample of industrial countries whereas domestic factors play a significantly larger role in explaining surges to developing countries. Zooming into the findings shows that: (a) financial booms tend to attract massive capital inflows, (b) surges to either industrial or developing countries are driven by regional contagion, and (c) strong growth and natural resource abundance are keys to attract inflows of foreign capital into developing countries.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 6753.

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Date of creation: 01 Jan 2014
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6753

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Keywords: Debt Markets; Emerging Markets; Currencies and Exchange Rates; Economic Theory&Research; Macroeconomic Management;

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  17. Claessens, Stijn & Kose, M. Ayhan & Terrones, Marco E., 2012. "How do business and financial cycles interact?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 178-190.
  18. Maurice Obstfeld, 2012. "Does the Current Account Still Matter?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 1-23, May.
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  20. Aizenman, Joshua & Sushko, Vladyslav, 2011. "Capital Flow Types, External Financing Needs, and Industrial Growth: 99 countries, 1991-2007," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt3fb716f8, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  21. Calderon, Cesar & Kubota, Megumi, 2012. "Gross inflows gone wild : gross capital inflows, credit booms and crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6270, The World Bank.
  22. Manuel R. Agosin & Franklin Huaita, 2011. "Capital flows to emerging economies: Minsky in the tropics," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 35(4), pages 663-683.
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