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Capital flows, push versus pull factors and the global financial crisis

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Abstract

The causes of the 2008 collapse and subsequent surge in global capital flows remain an open and highly controversial issue. Employing a factor model coupled with a dataset of high-frequency portfolio capital flows to 50 economies, the paper finds that common shocks – key crisis events as well as changes to global liquidity and risk – have exerted a large effect on capital flows both in the crisis and in the recovery. However, these effects have been highly heterogeneous across countries, with a large part of this heterogeneity being explained by differences in the quality of domestic institutions, country risk and the strength of domestic macroeconomic fundamentals. Comparing and quantifying these effects shows that common factors (“push” factors) were overall the main drivers of capital flows during the crisis, while country-specific determinants (“pull” factors) have been dominant in accounting for the dynamics of global capital flows in 2009 and 2010, in particular for emerging markets. JEL Classification: F3, F21, G11.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1364.

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Length: 52 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20111364

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Keywords: capital flows; factor model; common shocks; liquidity; risk; push factors; pull factors; emerging markets; advanced economies.;

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Cited by:
  1. Claudio Raddatz & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2011. "On the International Transmission of Shocks: Micro-Evidence from Mutual Fund Portfolios," NBER Working Papers 17358, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Fratzscher, Marcel & Lo Duca, Marco & Straub, Roland, 2012. "A global monetary tsunami? On the spillovers of US Quantitative Easing," CEPR Discussion Papers 9195, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Lambert, F. & Ramos-Tallada, J. & Rebillard, C., 2011. "Capital controls and spillover effects: evidence from Latin-American countries," Working papers 357, Banque de France.
  4. Fernando Arias & Daira Garrido & Daniel Parra & Hernán Rincón, 2012. "¿Responden los diferentes tipos de flujos de capitales a los mismos fundamentos y en el mismo grado? Evidencia reciente para países emergentes," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 009764, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.

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