This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Currency Returns, Intrinsic Value, and Institutional-Investor Flows

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
KENNETH A. FROOT
TARUN RAMADORAI

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

We decompose currency returns into (permanent) intrinsic-value shocks and (transitory) expected-return shocks. We explore interactions between these shocks, currency returns, and institutional-investor currency flows. Intrinsic-value shocks are: dwarfed by expected-return shocks (yet currency returns overreact to them); unrelated to flows (although expected-return shocks correlate with flows); and related positively to forecasted cumulated-interest differentials. These results suggest flows are related to short-term currency returns, while fundamentals better explain long-term returns and values. They also rationalize the long-observed poor performance of exchange-rate models: by ignoring the distinction between permanent and transitory exchange-rate changes, prior tests obscure the connection between currencies and fundamentals. Copyright 2005 by The American Finance Association.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2005.00769.x
File Format: text/html
File Function: link to full text
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Publisher Info
Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal The Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 60 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 (06)
Pages: 1535-1566
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:60:y:2005:i:3:p:1535-1566

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.afajof.org/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Web: http://www.afajof.org/membership/join.asp

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

Related research
Keywords:

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Hau, Harald & Massa, Massimo & Peress, Joël, 2005. "Do Demand Curves for Currencies Slope Down? Evidence from the MSCI Global Index Change," CEPR Discussion Papers 4862, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Tarun Ramadorai, 2008. "What determines transaction costs in foreign exchange markets?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 14-25. [Downloadable!]
  3. Taylor, Mark P. & Schmidt, Markus & Reitz, Stefan, 2007. "End-user order flow and exchange rate dynamics," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,05, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  4. Vargas, Gregorio A., 2008. "What Drives the Dynamic Conditional Correlation of Foreign Exchange and Equity Returns?," MPRA Paper 7174, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  5. Olli Castrén & Chiara Osbat & Matthias Sydow, 2006. "What drives investors’ behaviour in different FX market segments? A VAR-based return decomposition analysis," Working Paper Series 706, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Joshua V. Rosenberg & Leah G. Traub, 2006. "Price discovery in the foreign currency futures and spot market," Staff Reports 262, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  7. Vitale, Paolo, 2006. "A Market Microstructure Analysis of Foreign Exchange Intervention," CEPR Discussion Papers 5468, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2006. "Understanding order flow," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 3-23. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Antonio Scalia, 2006. "Is foreign exchange intervention effective? Some micro-analytical evidence from the Czech Republic," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 579, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  10. Jacob Gyntelberg & Mico Loretan & Tientip Subhanij & Eric Chan, 2009. "Private information, stock markets, and exchange rates," BIS Working Papers 271, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  11. Alexis Derviz, 2007. "Modeling Electronic FX Brokerage as a Fast Order-Driven Marketunder Heterogeneous Private Values and Information," Working Papers IES 2007/16, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised May 2007. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? About 1000 journals are listed on RePEc.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-12.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.