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Cointegration Vector Estimation by Panel DOLS and Long-run Money Demand

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  • Nelson C. Mark
  • Donggyu Sul

Abstract

We study the panel dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) estimator of a homogeneous cointegration vector for a balanced panel of "N" individuals observed over "T" time periods. Allowable heterogeneity across individuals include individual-specific time trends, individual-specific fixed effects and time-specific effects. The estimator is fully parametric, computationally convenient, and more precise than the single equation estimator. For fixed "N" as "T" goes to infinity, the estimator converges to a function of Brownian motions and the Wald statistic for testing a set of "s" linear constraints has a limiting chi-squared("s") distribution. The estimator also has a Gaussian sequential limit distribution that is obtained first by letting "T" goes to infinity and then letting "N" go to infinity. In a series of Monte-Carlo experiments, we find that the asymptotic distribution theory provides a reasonably close approximation to the exact finite sample distribution. We use panel DOLS to estimate coefficients of the long-run money demand function from a panel of 19 countries with annual observations that span from 1957 to 1996. The estimated income elasticity is 1.08 (asymptotic s.e. = 0.26) and the estimated interest rate semi-elasticity is - 0.02 (asymptotic s.e.=0.01). Copyright 2003 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Oxford in its journal Oxford Bulletin of Economics & Statistics.

Volume (Year): 65 (2003)
Issue (Month): 5 (December)
Pages: 655-680

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Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:65:y:2003:i:5:p:655-680

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References

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  1. Inder, Brett, 1993. "Estimating long-run relationships in economics : A comparison of different approaches," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1-3), pages 53-68.
  2. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-02, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  3. Hyungsik Roger MOON & Benoit PERRON, 2002. "Testing For A Unit Root In Panels With Dynamic Factors," Cahiers de recherche 18-2002, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en ├ęconomie quantitative, CIREQ.
  4. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  5. Peter C.B.Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2002. "Dynamic Panel Estimation and Homogeneity Testing Under Cross Section Dependence," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1362, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  6. Peter C.B. Phillips & Hyungsik R. Moon, 1999. "Nonstationary Panel Data Analysis: An Overview of Some Recent Developments," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1221, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  7. Chihwa Kao & Min-Hsien Chiang, 1997. "On the Estimation and Inference of a Cointegrated Regression in Panel Data," Econometrics 9703001, EconWPA.
  8. Moon, H.R.Hyungsik Roger & Perron, Benoit, 2004. "Testing for a unit root in panels with dynamic factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 81-126, September.
  9. Hoffman, Dennis L. & Rasche, Robert H. & Tieslau, Margie A., 1995. "The stability of long-run money demand in five industrial countries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 317-339, April.
  10. Laurence Ball, 1998. "Another Look at Long-Run Money Demand," NBER Working Papers 6597, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Sala-i-Martin, X. & Mulligan, C.B., 1992. "U.S. Money Demand: Surprising Cross-Sectional Estimates," Papers 671, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
  12. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
  13. Lucas, Robert E., 1988. "Money demand in the United States: A quantitative review," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 137-167, January.
  14. Peter C.B. Phillips & Chi-Young Choi & Donggyu Sul, 2004. "Prewhitening Bias in HAC Estimation," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm426, Yale School of Management.
  15. Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  16. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
  17. Peter C.B. Phillips & Hyungsik R. Moon, 1999. "Linear Regression Limit Theory for Nonstationary Panel Data," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1222, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  18. Saikkonen, Pentti, 1991. "Asymptotically Efficient Estimation of Cointegration Regressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(01), pages 1-21, March.
  19. King, Robert G., 1988. "Money demand in the United States: A quantitative review," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 169-172, January.
  20. repec:cup:etheor:v:7:y:1991:i:1:p:1-21 is not listed on IDEAS
  21. Gandolfi, Arthur E & Lothian, James R, 1976. "The Demand for Money from the Great Depression to the Present," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(2), pages 46-51, May.
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