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External Balance in Low-Income Countries

In: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2009

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  • Lone Christiansen
  • Alessandro Prati
  • Luca Antonio Ricci
  • Thierry Tressel

Abstract

This paper offers a coherent empirical analysis of the determinants of the real exchange rate, the current account, and the net foreign assets position in low income countries. The paper focuses on indicators specific to low income countries, such as the quality of policies and institutions, the special access to official external financing, and the role of shocks. In addition to more standard factors, we find that domestic financial liberalization is associated with higher current account balances and net foreign asset positions, while capital account liberalization is associated with lower current account balances and net foreign asset positions and with more appreciated real exchange rates. Negative exogenous shocks tend to raise (reduce) the current account in countries with closed (opened) capital accounts. Finally, foreign aid is progressively absorbed over time through net imports, and is associated with a more depreciated real exchange rate in the long-run.

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This chapter was published in:

  • Lucrezia Reichlin & Kenneth D. West, 2010. "NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2009," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number reic09-1, October.
    This item is provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Chapters with number 11921.

    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:11921

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    Cited by:
    1. André Nassif & Carmem Feijó & Eliane Araújo, 2011. "The trend of the real exchange rate overvaluation in open emerging economies: the case of Brazil," Working Papers 0111, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Department of Economics.
    2. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Commodity Terms of Trade: The History of Booms and Busts," IMF Working Papers 09/205, International Monetary Fund.
    3. André Nassif & Carmem Feijó & Marco Antônio Silveira De Almeida, 2011. "Why Does Real Exchange Rate Overvalue Inbrazil? Theoretical Determinants, Empirical Evidence And Economicpolicy Dilemmas," Anais do XXXVIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 38th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 237, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    4. Farid MAKHLOUF & Mazhar MUGHAL, 2011. "Remittances, Dutch Disease, and Competitiveness - A Bayesian Analysis," Working Papers 2011-2012_1, CATT - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, revised Dec 2011.
    5. Paul Cashin & Samya Beidas-Strom, 2011. "Are Middle Eastern Current Account Imbalances Excessive?," IMF Working Papers 11/195, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Reinhardt, Dennis & Ricci, Luca Antonio & Tressel, Thierry, 2013. "International capital flows and development: Financial openness matters," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 235-251.
    7. Prachi Mishra & Antonio Spilimbergo & Peter Montiel, 2010. "Monetary transmission in low income countries," Department of Economics Working Papers 2010-14, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    8. Jarotschkin, Alexandra & Kraay, Aart, 2013. "Aid, disbursement delays, and the real exchange rate," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6501, The World Bank.
    9. Noriaki Kinoshita & Cameron McLoughlin, 2012. "Monetization in Low- and Middle-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 12/160, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Adolfo Barajas & Ralph Chami & Dalia Hakura & Peter Montiel, 2011. "Workers’ Remittances and the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: Theory and Evidence," Journal of LACEA Economia, LACEA - LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION.
    11. Jair Ojeda JOya & Jhon Edwar Torres, 2012. "Posición Externa de Largo Plazo y Tipo de Cambio Real de Equilibrio en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 745, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    12. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "The Relationship between the Foreign Exchange Regime and Macroeconomic Performance in Eastern Africa," IMF Working Papers 12/148, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Andrew Berg & Yanliang Miao, 2010. "The Real Exchange Rate and Growth Revisited: The Washington Consensus Strikes Back?," IMF Working Papers 10/58, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Diego Bastourre & Luis Casanova & Alejo Espora, 2011. "Tipo de Cambio Real y Crecimiento: Síntesis de la Evidencia y Agenda de Investigación," Department of Economics, Working Papers 082, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    15. Robert C. York & Misa Takebe, 2011. "External Sustainability of Oil-Producing Sub-Saharan African Countries," IMF Working Papers 11/207, International Monetary Fund.

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