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An equilibrum model of "global imbalances" and low interest rates

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Author Info

  • Ricardo J Caballero
  • Emmanuel Farhi
  • Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas

Abstract

Three of the most important recent facts in global macroeconomics - the sustained rise in the US current account deficit, the stubborn decline in long run real rates, and the rise in the share of US assets in global portfolio - appear as anomalies from the perspective of conventional wisdom and models. Instead, in this paper we provide a model that rationalizes these facts as an equilibrium outcome of two observed forces: a) potential growth differentials among different regions of the world and, b) heterogeneity in these regions' capacity to generate financial assets from real investments. In extensions of the basic model, we also generate exchange rate and FDI excess returns which are broadly consistent with the recent trends in these variables. More generally, the framework is flexible enough to shed light on a range of scenarios in a global equilibrium environment.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 222.

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Length: 88 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:222

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Related research

Keywords: exchange rates; capital flows; Current account deficits; interest rates; global portfolios and equilibrium; growth and financial development asymmetries; FDI; intermediation rents;

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References

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  1. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2006. "An Equilibrium Model of Global Imbalances and Low Interest Rates," 2006 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics 894, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Philip Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2005. "A Global Perspective on External Positions," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series, IIIS iiisdp079, IIIS.
  3. Shang-Jin Wei & Jiandong Ju, 2006. "A Solution to Two Paradoxes of International Capital Flow," IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund 06/178, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Frankel, Jeffrey & Cavallo, Eduardo, 2004. "Does Openness to Trade Make Countries More Vulnerable to Sudden Stops, or Less? Using Gravity to Establish Causality," Working Paper Series, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government rwp04-038, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  5. Ricardo Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Mohamad L. Hammour, 2004. "Speculative Growth: Hints from the US Economy," NBER Working Papers 10518, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Chinn, Menzie David & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2006. "Will the Euro Eventually Surpass the Dollar As Leading International Reserve Currency?," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4hz4n9pb, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  7. David E. Weinstein & Christian Broda, 2004. "Globalization And The Gains From Variety," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings, Econometric Society 327, Econometric Society.
  8. repec:fip:fedgsq:y:2005:i:mar10 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Soyoung Kim & Nouriel Roubini, 2004. "Twin Deficit or Twin Divergence? Fiscal Policy, Current Account, and Real Exchange Rate in the US," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings, Econometric Society 271, Econometric Society.
  10. Kenneth Rogoff & William Brainard & George Perry, . "Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments," Working Paper 33687, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  11. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2007. "Financial Integration, Financial Deepness and Global Imbalance," 2007 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics 746, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  12. Blanchard, Olivier & Giavazzi, Francesco & Sa, Filipa, 2005. "The US Current Account and the Dollar," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 4888, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Rey, Hélène, 2005. "From World Banker to World Venture Capitalist: US External Adjustment and The Exorbitant Privilege," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 5220, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Ben S. Bernanke, 2005. "The global saving glut and the U.S. current account deficit," Speech, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 77, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  15. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Krishnamurthy, Arvind, 2006. "Bubbles and capital flow volatility: Causes and risk management," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 35-53, January.
  16. Sebastian Edwards, 2005. "Is the U.S. Current Account Deficit Sustainable? And If Not, How Costly is Adjustment Likely To Be?," NBER Working Papers 11541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Richard H. Clarida, 2006. "G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment," NBER Working Papers 12194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Richard N. Cooper, 2005. "Living with Global Imbalances: A Contrarian View," Policy Briefs, Peterson Institute for International Economics PB05-03, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  19. Menzie D. Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2005. "Current Account Balances, Financial Development and Institutions: Assaying the World "Savings Glut"," NBER Working Papers 11761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. William R. Cline, 2005. "United States as a Debtor Nation, The," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 3993, July.
  21. Michael Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2005. "An essay on the revived Bretton Woods system," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Feb.
  22. repec:tcd:wpaper:tep16 is not listed on IDEAS
  23. Martin Feldstein, 2005. "Monetary Policy in a Changing International Environment: The Role of Global Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 11856, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Gilbert,Christopher L. & Vines,David (ed.), 2006. "The World Bank," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521029018.
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Citations

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Global Imbalances: Links to Economic and Financial Stability
    by Guest Author in the big picture on 2011-02-21 15:09:05
  2. The most important Budget number
    by chris dillow in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2009-04-22 16:51:13
  3. Global imbalances and sliding dollar, is the US doomed?
    by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2008-03-14 18:33:00
  4. Another case for plan B
    by chris dillow in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2011-07-27 13:31:10
  5. Was fiscal policy too tight in the boom?
    by chris dillow in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2009-11-23 14:54:34
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