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Is the U.S. Current Account Deficit Sustainable? And If Not, How Costly is Adjustment Likely To Be?

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Author Info
Sebastian Edwards

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Abstract

In this paper I analyze the relationship between the U.S. dollar and the U.S. current account. I deal with issues of sustainability, and I discuss the mechanics of current account adjustment. The analysis presented in this paper differs from other work in several respects: First, I emphasis the dynamics of the current account adjustment, going beyond computations of the "required" real depreciation of the dollar to achieve sustainability. I show that even if foreigners' (net) demand for U.S. assets continues to increase significantly, the current account deficit is likely to experience a large decline in the (not too distant) future. Second, I rely on international evidence to explore the likelihood of an abrupt decline in capital flows into the U.S. And third, I analyze the international evidence on current account reversals, to investigate the potential consequences of a (possible) sudden stop of capital flows into the U.S. This analysis suggests that the future adjustment of the U.S. external accounts is likely to result in a significant reduction in growth.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11541.

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Date of creation: Aug 2005
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11541

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order; Noneconomic International Organizations;; Economic Integration and Globalization: General
F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  13. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2004. "The Revived Bretton Woods System: The Effects of Periphery Intervention and Reserve Management on Interest Rates & Exchange Rates in Center Countries," NBER Working Papers 10332, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Cedric Tille, 2003. "The impact of exchange rate movements on U.S. foreign debt," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jan. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Eduardo A. Cavallo, 2004. "Does Openness to Trade Make Countries More Vulnerable to Sudden Stops, Or Less? Using Gravity to Establish Causality," NBER Working Papers 10957, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Chi-Young Choi & Nelson Mark & Donggyu Sul, 2004. "Unbiased Estimation of the Half-Life to PPP Convergence in Panel Data," NBER Working Papers 10614, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Agnes Benassy-Quere & Pascale Duran-Vigneron & Amina Lahreche-Revil & Valerie Mignon, 2004. "Burden Sharing and Exchange-Rate Misalignments within the Group of Twenty," Working Papers 2004-13, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
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Full references

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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Fogli, Alessandra & Perri, Fabrizio, 2006. "The 'Great Moderation' and the US External Imbalance," CEPR Discussion Papers 6010, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Charles P. Thomas & Francis E. Warnock, 2008. "Current Account Sustainability and Relative Reliability," NBER Working Papers 14295, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Gehlhar, Mark & Dohlman, Erik, 2006. "Macroeconomic and Global Growth Influences on the U.S. Agricultural Trade Balance," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21324, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  4. Philip Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2005. "A Global Perspective on External Positions," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp079, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. José De Gregorio, 2005. "Global Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustment," Economic Policy Papers Central Bank of Chile 15, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  6. Joshua Aizenman & Yi Sun, 2008. "Globalization and the Sustainability of Large Current Account Imbalances: Size Matters," NBER Working Papers 13734, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Steven B. Kamin & Trevor A. Reeve & Nathan Sheets, 2007. "U.S. external adjustment: is it disorderly? Is it unique? Will it disrupt the rest of the world?," International Finance Discussion Papers 892, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Bernardina Algieri & Thierry Bracke, 2007. "Patterns of current account adjustment - insights from past experience," Working Paper Series 762, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  9. Menzie D. Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2005. "Current Account Balances, Financial Development and Institutions: Assaying the World "Savings Glut"," NBER Working Papers 11761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2005. "The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series 1063, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Charles Engel & John H. Rogers, 2006. "The U.S. Current Account Deficit and the Expected Share of World Output," NBER Working Papers 11921, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Horag Choi & Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul, 2007. "Endogenous Discounting, the World Saving Glut and the U.S. Current Account," NBER Working Papers 13571, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Bernardina Algieri & Thierry Bracke, 2007. "Patterns of Current Account Adjustment – Insights from Past Experience," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  14. Christopher Gust & Sylvain Leduc & Nathan Sheets, 2008. "The adjustment of global external balances: does partial exchange rate pass-through to trade prices matter?," Working Paper Series 2008-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Joseph W. Gruber & Steven B. Kamin, 2005. "Explaining the global pattern of current account imbalances," International Finance Discussion Papers 846, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  16. Sebastian Edwards, 2005. "The end of large current account deficits : 1970-2002 : are there lessons for the United States?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 205-268. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Junning Cai, 2005. "Currency Manipulation versus Current Account Manipulation," International Finance 0510023, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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