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On the solvency of nations: Cross-country evidence on the dynamics of external adjustment

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  • Durdu, C. Bora
  • Mendoza, Enrique G.
  • Terrones, Marco E.

Abstract

We test the hypothesis that net foreign asset positions are consistent with external solvency and examine the dynamics of external adjustment using data for 50 countries over the 1970–2006 period. Our analysis adapts Bohn's (2007) error-correction reaction function approach – which tests for a negative long-run relationship between net exports (NX) and net foreign assets (NFA) as a sufficiency condition for the intertemporal budget constraint to hold – to a dynamic panel framework. Pooled Mean Group (PMG) and Mean Group error-correction estimation yield evidence of a statistically significant, negative response of NX to NFA. Moreover, we cannot reject the hypothesis that the response is largely homogeneous across countries. Our sensitivity analysis shows that the countries with relatively weaker fundamentals need to respond more strongly to the changes in NFA to keep their NFAs on a sustainable path.

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  • Durdu, C. Bora & Mendoza, Enrique G. & Terrones, Marco E., 2013. "On the solvency of nations: Cross-country evidence on the dynamics of external adjustment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 762-780.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:32:y:2013:i:c:p:762-780
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2012.07.002
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    2. Vassilis Monastiriotis & Cigdem Borke Tunali, 2020. "The Sustainability of External Imbalances in the European Periphery," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 273-294, April.
    3. D’Erasmo, P. & Mendoza, E.G. & Zhang, J., 2016. "What is a Sustainable Public Debt?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2493-2597, Elsevier.
    4. Hoffmann, Mathias & Krause, Michael & Tillmann, Peter, 2019. "International capital flows, external assets and output volatility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 242-255.
    5. Osman F. Abbasoğlu & Ayşe İmrohoroğlu & Ayşe Kabukçuoğlu, 2019. "The Turkish Current Account Deficit," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(1), pages 515-536, January.
    6. D.D. Evans, Martin, 2017. "External balances, trade and financial conditions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 165-184.
    7. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Carmen D Roldᮠ & Esteve, 2014. "Sustainability of external imbalances in the OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(4), pages 441-449, February.
    8. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Paulo José Regis, 2015. "The Sustainability of European External Debt: What have We Learned?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 445-468, August.
    9. Shafik Hebous & Alexander Klemm & Saila Stausholm, 2020. "Revenue Implications of Destination-Based Cash-Flow Taxation," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(4), pages 848-874, December.
    10. Michael Bleaney & Mo Tian, 2019. "Net foreign assets and current account balances," Discussion Papers 2019/06, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    11. Michael Bleaney & Mo Tian, 2013. "Net Foreign Assets, Real Exchange Rates and Net Exports Revisited," Discussion Papers 13/04, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    12. Singh Tarlok, 2017. "Sustainability of Current Account Deficits in the OECD Countries: Evidence from Panel Data Estimators," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 17(4), pages 1-16, December.
    13. António Afonso & Florence Huart & João Tovar Jalles & Piotr Stanek, 2020. "Long-run relationship between exports and imports: current account sustainability tests for the EU," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 19(2), pages 155-170, May.
    14. Tarlok Singh, 2017. "Are Current Account Deficits in the OECD Countries Sustainable? Robust Evidence from Time-Series Estimators," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 29-64, January.
    15. Albuquerque Bruno & Baumann Ursel & Krustev Georgi, 2015. "US household deleveraging following the Great Recession – a model-based estimate of equilibrium debt," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 1-53, January.
    16. Vermeulen, Robert & de Haan, Jakob, 2014. "Net foreign asset (com)position: Does financial development matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 88-106.
    17. Michael Bleaney & Mo Tian, 2014. "Global Imbalances and the External Solvency of Nations," Discussion Papers 14/02, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    18. Navarro-Ortiz, Josep & Sapena, Juan, 2020. "Is external debt sustainable? A probabilistic approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 142-153.
    19. Michael Bleaney & Mo Tian, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Trade Balance Adjustment: A Multi-Country Empirical Analysis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 655-675, September.
    20. João Barata R. B. Barroso, 2014. "External Sustainability and Gross Positions: are Brazilian external accounts sustainable?," Working Papers Series 362, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    21. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Paolo Jose Regis, 2014. "On the changes in the sustainability of European external debt: what have we learned," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2014-3, Bank of Estonia, revised 10 Oct 2014.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global imbalances; External solvency; Debt sustainability; Pooled mean group estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions

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