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On the solvency of nations: Cross-country evidence on the dynamics of external adjustment

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  • Durdu, C. Bora
  • Mendoza, Enrique G.
  • Terrones, Marco E.

Abstract

We test the hypothesis that net foreign asset positions are consistent with external solvency and examine the dynamics of external adjustment using data for 50 countries over the 1970–2006 period. Our analysis adapts Bohn's (2007) error-correction reaction function approach – which tests for a negative long-run relationship between net exports (NX) and net foreign assets (NFA) as a sufficiency condition for the intertemporal budget constraint to hold – to a dynamic panel framework. Pooled Mean Group (PMG) and Mean Group error-correction estimation yield evidence of a statistically significant, negative response of NX to NFA. Moreover, we cannot reject the hypothesis that the response is largely homogeneous across countries. Our sensitivity analysis shows that the countries with relatively weaker fundamentals need to respond more strongly to the changes in NFA to keep their NFAs on a sustainable path.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 32 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 762-780

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:32:y:2013:i:c:p:762-780

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

Related research

Keywords: Global imbalances; External solvency; Debt sustainability; Pooled mean group estimation;

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References

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  1. Fabio Ghironi & Jaewoo Lee & Alessandro Rebucci, 2006. "The Valuation Channel of External Adjustment," 2006 Meeting Papers 195, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2007. "A Global Perspective on External Positions," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 67-102 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Marco E. Terrones & Enrique G. Mendoza & Ceyhun Bora Durdu, 2008. "Precautionary Demand for Foreign Assets in Sudden Stop Economies: An Assessment of the New Mercantilism," 2008 Meeting Papers 56, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Henning Bohn, 2005. "The Sustainability of Fiscal Policy in the United States," CESifo Working Paper Series 1446, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. David Backus & Espen Henriksen & Frederic Lambert & Chris Telmer, 2005. "Current Account Fact and Fiction," 2005 Meeting Papers 115, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2005. "The unsustainable U.S. current account position revisited," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Feb.
  7. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi & Filipa Sa, 2005. "The U.S. Current Account and the Dollar," NBER Working Papers 11137, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2006. "The External Wealth of Nations Mark II: Revised and Extended Estimates of Foreign Assets and Liabilities, 1970-2004," CEPR Discussion Papers 5644, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. James M. Nason & John H. Rogers, 2003. "The present-value model of the current account has been rejected: Round up the usual suspects," Working Paper 2003-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  10. Bohn, Henning, 2007. "Are stationarity and cointegration restrictions really necessary for the intertemporal budget constraint?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1837-1847, October.
  11. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Maurice Obstfeld, 2011. "Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First," NBER Working Papers 17252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2005. "From World Banker to World Venture Capitalist: US External Adjustment and the Exorbitant Privilege," NBER Working Papers 11563, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Enrique G. Mendoza & Jonathan D. Ostry, 2007. "International Evidence on Fiscal Solvency: Is Fiscal Policy "Responsible"?," NBER Working Papers 12947, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. repec:tcd:wpaper:tep16 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Enrique G. Mendoza & Jonathan David Ostry, 2007. "International Evidenceon Fiscal Solvency," IMF Working Papers 07/56, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Wickens, M. R. & Uctum, Merih, 1993. "The sustainability of current account deficits : A test of the US intertemporal budget constraint," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 423-441, May.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Albuquerque, Bruno & Baumann, Ursel & Krustev, Georgi, 2014. "Has US household deleveraging ended? a model-based estimate of equilibrium debt," Working Paper Series 1643, European Central Bank.
  2. Michael Bleaney & Mo Tian, . "Exchange Rates and Trade Balance Adjustment:A Multi-Country Empirical Analysis," Discussion Papers 12/10, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
  3. Vermeulen, Robert & de Haan, Jakob, 2014. "Net foreign asset (com)position: Does financial development matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 88-106.
  4. Michael Bleaney & Mo Tian, . "Net Foreign Assets, Real Exchange Rates and Net Exports Revisited," Discussion Papers 13/04, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.

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