Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Will the Euro Eventually Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Reserve Currency?

Contents:

Author Info

  • Menzie Chinn
  • Jeffrey Frankel

Abstract

Might the dollar eventually follow the precedent of the pound and cede its status as leading international reserve currency? Unlike ten years ago, there now exists a credible competitor: the euro. This paper econometrically estimates determinants of the shares of major currencies in the reserve holdings of the world%u2019s central banks. Significant factors include: size of the home country, inflation rate (or lagged depreciation trend), exchange rate variability, and size of the relevant home financial center (as measured by the turnover in its foreign exchange market). We have not found that net international debt position is an important determinant. Network externality theories would predict a tipping phenomenon. Indeed we find that the relationship between currency shares and their determinants is nonlinear (which we try to capture with a logistic function, or else with a dummy %u201Cleader%u201D variable for the largest country). But changes are felt only with a long lag (we estimate a weight on the preceding year%u2019s currency share around .9). The advent of the euro interrupts the continuity of the historical data set. So we estimate parameters on pre-1999 data, and then use them to forecast the EMU era. The equation correctly predicts a (small) narrowing in the gap between the dollar and euro over the period 1999-2004. Whether the euro might in the future rival or surpass the dollar as the world%u2019s leading international reserve currency appears to depend on two things: (1) do the United Kingdom and enough other EU members join euroland so that it becomes larger than the US economy, and (2) does US macroeconomic policy eventually undermine confidence in the value of the dollar, in the form of inflation and depreciation. What we learn about functional form and parameter values helps us forecast, contingent on these two developments, how quickly the euro might rise to challenge the dollar. Under two important scenarios the remaining EU members, including the UK, join EMU by 2020 or else the recent depreciation trend of the dollar persists into the future the euro may surpass the dollar as leading international reserve currency by 2022.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w11510.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11510.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Aug 2005
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as Menzie Chinn, Jeffrey A. Frankel. "Will the Euro Eventually Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Reserve Currency?," in Richard H. Clarida, editor, "G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment" University of Chicago Press (2007)
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11510

Note: IFM
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Phone: 617-868-3900
Email:
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Michael B. Devereux & Shouyong Shi, 2008. "Vehicle currency," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 10, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    • Michael B. Devereux & Shouyong Shi, 2013. "Vehicle Currency," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54(1), pages 97-133, 02.
  2. Carsten Detken & Philipp Hartmann, 2000. "The Euro and International Capital Markets," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 27, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
  3. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1989. "The dollar in the 1990s: competitiveness and the challenges of new economic blocs," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 245-290.
  4. Detken, Carsten & Hartmann, Philipp, 2000. "The euro and international capital markets," CFS Working Paper Series 2000/09, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  5. Jeffrey A. Frankel., 1993. "Is Japan Creating a Yen Bloc in East Asia and the Pacific?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C93-007, University of California at Berkeley.
  6. Alogoskoufis, G. & Portes, R. & Rey, H., 1997. "The Emergence of the Euro as an International Currency," DELTA Working Papers 97-28, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  7. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 1992. "Yen bloc or dollar bloc: exchange rate policies of the East Asian economies," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 93-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  8. John F. O. Bilson & Richard C. Marston, 1984. "Exchange Rate Theory and Practice," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bils84-1, October.
  9. Carsten Detken & Philipp Hartmann, 2002. "Features of the euro's role in international financial markets," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 17(35), pages 553-569, October.
  10. Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Levine, Ross, 1999. "A new database on financial development and structure," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2146, The World Bank.
  11. Jeffrey Frankel, 1991. "On the dollar and the yen," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 91-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  12. Paul R. Krugman, 1984. "The International Role of the Dollar: Theory and Prospect," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 261-278 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Black, Stanley W., 1985. "International money and international monetary arrangements," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 22, pages 1153-1193 Elsevier.
  14. Rey, Helene, 2001. "International Trade and Currency Exchange," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(2), pages 443-64, April.
  15. Yusuru Ozeki & George S. Tavlas, 1992. "The Internationalization of Currencies: An Appraisal of the Japanese Yen," IMF Occasional Papers 90, International Monetary Fund.
  16. George S. Tavlas & Yusuru Ozeki, 1991. "The Japanese Yen as an International Currency," IMF Working Papers 91/2, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Martin Feldstein, 2003. "Economic and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number feld03-1, October.
  18. AfDB AfDB, . "AfDB Group Annual Report 2004," Annual Report, African Development Bank, number 60 edited by Koua Louis Kouakou.
  19. Michael P. Dooley & J. Saul Lizondo & Donald J. Mathieson, 1989. "The Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(2), pages 385-434, June.
  20. Michael Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2005. "An essay on the revived Bretton Woods system," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Feb.
  21. Barry Eichengreen, 2005. "Sterling's Past, Dollar's Future: Historical Perspectives on Reserve Currency Competition," NBER Working Papers 11336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Barry Eichengreen and Jeffrey A. Frankel., 1996. "On the SDR: Reserve Currencies and the Future of the International Monetary System," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C96-068, University of California at Berkeley.
  23. Hartmann, Philipp, 1998. "The Currency Denomination of World Trade after European Monetary Union," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 424-454, December.
  24. Black, Stanley W., 1991. "Transactions costs and vehicle currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 512-526, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11510. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.