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Asset Prices, News Shocks and the Current Account

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  • Fratzscher, Marcel
  • Straub, Roland

Abstract

We analyze the relationship between asset prices and current account positions estimating a Bayesian VAR for a broad set of 42 industrialized and emerging market countries. To derive model-based identifying restrictions, we model asset price shocks as news shocks about future productivity in a two-country DSGE model. Such shocks are found to exert sizeable effects on the current account positions of countries. Moreover, the effects are highly heterogeneous across countries, for instance following a 10 percent shock to domestic equity prices relative to the rest of the world the US trade balance will worsen by 1.0 percentage points, but much less so for most other economies. We find that this heterogeneity appears to be linked to the financial market depth and equity home bias of countries. Moreover, the channels via wealth effects and via the real exchange rate are important for understanding the heterogeneity in the transmission.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8080.

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Date of creation: Oct 2010
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8080

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Keywords: asset prices; Bayesian VAR; current account; financial markets; home bias; identification; news shocks; wealth effects;

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Cited by:
  1. Berg, Tim Oliver, 2011. "Technology news and the U.S. economy: Time variation and structural changes," MPRA Paper 35361, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Geerolf, François & Grjebine, Thomas, 2013. "House Prices Drive Current Accounts: Evidence from Property Tax Variations," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Docweb) 1315, CEPREMAP.
  3. Nikolaychuk Sergiy & Shapovalenko Nadiia, 2013. "The identification of the sources of current account fluctuations in Ukraine," EERC Working Paper Series 13/12e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
  4. Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta & Mampho P. Modise, 2012. "Do Stock Prices Impact Consumption and Interest Rate in South Africa? Evidence from a Time-Varying Vector Autoregressive Model," Working Papers 201224, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

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