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The Euro May Over the Next 15 Years Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Currency

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  • Menzie D. Chinn
  • Jeffrey A. Frankel

Abstract

The euro has arisen as a credible eventual competitor to the dollar as leading international currency, much as the dollar rose to challenge the pound 70 years ago. This paper uses econometrically-estimated determinants of the shares of major currencies in the reserve holdings of the world’s central banks. Significant factors include: size of the home country, rate of return, and liquidity in the relevant home financial center (as measured by the turnover in its foreign exchange market). There is a tipping phenomenon, but changes are felt only with a long lag (we estimate a weight on the preceding year’s currency share around .9). The equation correctly predicts out-of-sample a (small) narrowing in the gap between the dollar and euro over the period 1999-2007. This paper updates calculations regarding possible scenarios for the future. We exclude the scenario where the United Kingdom joins euroland. But we do take into account of the fact that London has nonetheless become the de facto financial center of the euro, more so than Frankfurt. We also assume that the dollar continues in the future to depreciate at the trend rate that it has shown on average over the last 20 years. The conclusion is that the euro may surpass the dollar as leading international reserve currency as early as 2015.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 13909.

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Date of creation: Apr 2008
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13909

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Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Der langsame Abschied vom Dollar
    by Tobias Straumann in Never mind the markets on 2014-01-27 04:00:42
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Cited by:
  1. Fritz Breuss & Werner Roeger & Jan in’t Veld, 2009. "Global impact of a shift in foreign reserves to euros," Empirica, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 101-122, February.
  2. Elias Papaioannou & Richard Portes, 2008. "The international role of the euro: a status report," European Economy - Economic Papers 317, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  3. Jørgen Hansen & Roswitha King & Virmantas Kvedaras, 2011. "The International Reserves Issue in the EMU," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 143-161, February.
  4. Hans Genberg, 2011. "Currency internationalisation: analytical and policy issues," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Currency internationalisation: lessons from the global financial crisis and prospects for the future in Asia and the Pacific, volume 61, pages 221-230 Bank for International Settlements.
  5. Livia Chitu & Barry Eichengreen & Arnaud J. Mehl, 2012. "When did the dollar overtake sterling as the leading international currency? Evidence from the bond markets," NBER Working Papers 18097, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Hyoung-kyu Chey, 2013. "The Concepts, Consequences, and Determinants of Currency Internationalization," GRIPS Discussion Papers 13-03, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
  7. Beck, Roland & Weber, Sebastian, 2010. "Should larger reserve holdings be more diversified?," Working Paper Series 1193, European Central Bank.
  8. Eichengreen, Barry & Flandreau, Marc, 2008. "The Rise and Fall of the Dollar, or When did the Dollar Replace Sterling as the Leading Reserve Currency?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6869, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Barry Eichengreen & Marc Flandreau, 2010. "The Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the rise of the dollar as an international currency, 1914-39," BIS Working Papers 328, Bank for International Settlements.
  10. Eichengreen, Barry & Chiţu, Livia & Mehl, Arnaud, 2014. "Network effects, homogeneous goods and international currency choice: new evidence on oil markets from an older era," Working Paper Series 1651, European Central Bank.
  11. Barry Eichengreen, Marc Flandreau, 2010. "The Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Rise of the Dollar as an International Currency, 1914-1939," IHEID Working Papers 16-2010, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
  12. Casimir Dadak, 2011. "Political Economy of the Euro Area Crisis," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 58(5), pages 593-604, December.
  13. Beck, Roland & Rahbari, Ebrahim, 2011. "Optimal reserve composition in the presence of sudden stops," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1107-1127, October.
  14. Isabella Sima & Camelia Marin & Cristina Tenovici & Elena Nisipeanu, 2012. "Crisis in the Euro Area and the Euro: The Game of Giants - Euro vs. Dollar," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 2(1), pages 57-64, January.
  15. Barry Eichengreen & Marc Flandreau, 2008. "The Rise and Fall of the Dollar, or When Did the Dollar Replace Sterling as the Leading International Currency?," NBER Working Papers 14154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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