Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

The euro and the dollar

Contents:

Author Info

  • Robert N. McCauley

Abstract

How will the arrival of the euro affect the dollar? This paper uses portfolio theory to analyse the likelihood and impact of shifts between the dollar and the euro by private asset managers, official reserve managers and global liability managers. It examines the effects on both the level of the dollar and its volatility in three periods: the period before the euro's introduction; the interval until the European Central Bank consolidates its credibility; and the approach to the steady state. While the heavy weight of the Deutsche mark in international holdings of European assets today may suggest a risk intolerance that could lead to shifts into the dollar in the near future, that weight may evidence nothing more than the mark's transactions role. After its introduction, the euro may benefit from shifts by central banks into Treasury bills issued by European governments. In the approach to the steady state, the greater depth, breadth and liquidity of the euro financial markets will attract international investment. But these features should be expected to attract increased international borrowing as well, so there is little reason to expect the dollar to fall against the euro as a result of a net portfolio shifts. There is some reason to expect that in the long run the euro will impart greater volatility to the dollar's exchange rate against all US trading partners.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/work50.pdf
File Function: Full PDF document
Download Restriction: no

File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/work50.htm
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 50.

as in new window
Length: 81 pages
Date of creation: Nov 1997
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:50

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Centralbahnplatz 2, CH - 4002 Basel
Phone: (41) 61 - 280 80 80
Fax: (41) 61 - 280 91 00
Email:
Web page: http://www.bis.org/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. F. Saccomanni, 1996. "Towards ERM2: managing the relationship between the euro and the other currencies of the European Union," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 49(199), pages 385-403.
  2. Kindleberger, Charles P., 1996. "World Economic Primacy: 1500 to 1990," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195099027.
  3. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1986. "The implications of mean-variance optimization for four questions in international macroeconomics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(1, Supple), pages S53-S75, March.
  4. Claudio E. V. Borio & Robert N. McCauley, 1995. "The anatomy of the bond market turbulence of 1994," BIS Working Papers 32, Bank for International Settlements.
  5. Mali J. Edison & Linda S. Kole, 1995. "European monetary arrangements: Implications for the dollar, exchange rate variability and credibility," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 1(1), pages 61-86.
  6. Eduardo Borensztein & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 236-261, June.
  7. Eichengreen, Barry & Bayoumi, Tamim, 1996. "Is Asia an Optimum Currency Area? Can It Become One? Regional, Global and Historical Perspectives on Asian Monetary Relations," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt1td5x343, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  8. Michael P. Dooley & J. Saul Lizondo & Donald J. Mathieson, 1989. "The Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(2), pages 385-434, June.
  9. Juann Hung & Charles Pigott & Anthony Rodrigues, 1988. "Financial implications of the U.S. external deficit," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Win, pages 33-51.
  10. Philippe Martin, 1997. "The Exchange Rate Policy of the Euro: a Matter of Size?," Working Papers 1997-06, CEPII research center.
  11. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1991. "The Simplest Test of Target Zone Credibility," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(3), pages 655-665, September.
  12. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impacts of sovereign credit ratings," Research Paper 9608, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  13. Robert N. McCauley & William R. White, 1997. "The Euro and European financial markets," BIS Working Papers 41, Bank for International Settlements.
  14. Richard Portes & Hélène Rey, 1998. "The emergence of the euro as an international currency," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 13(26), pages 305-343, 04.
  15. Jeffrey A. Frankel and Shang-Jin Wei., 1993. "Emerging Currency Blocs," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C93-026, University of California at Berkeley.
  16. Sjaastad, Larry A. & Scacciavillani, Fabio, 1996. "The price of gold and the exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 879-897, December.
  17. Black, Stanley W., 1991. "Transactions costs and vehicle currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 512-526, December.
  18. John F. O. Bilson & Richard C. Marston, 1984. "Exchange Rate Theory and Practice," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bils84-1, October.
  19. Rama Seth & Robert N. McCauley, 1987. "Financial consequences of new Asian surpluses," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sum, pages 32-44.
  20. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Benoît Mojon & Jean Pisani-Ferry, 1997. "The Euro and Exchange Rate Stability," Working Papers 1997-12, CEPII research center.
  21. Kenen, Peter B, 1997. "Preferences, Domains, and Sustainability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 211-13, May.
  22. F. Saccomanni, 1996. "Towards ERM2: managing the relationship between the euro and the other currencies of the European Union," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 49(199), pages 385-403.
  23. Tavlas, G.S., 1991. "On the International Use of Currencies: the Case of the Deutsche Mark," Princeton Studies in International Economics 181, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
  24. Honohan, Patrick, 1984. "The break-up of a currency union increases the demand for money," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 235-238, July.
  25. Eichengreen, B., 1992. "Should the Maastricht Treaty be Saved?," Princeton Studies in International Economics 74, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
  26. Robert N. McCauley & Stephen Yeaple, 1994. "How lower Japanese asset prices affect Pacific financial markets," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Spr, pages 19-33.
  27. Yusuru Ozeki & George S. Tavlas, 1992. "The Internationalization of Currencies," IMF Occasional Papers 90, International Monetary Fund.
  28. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1985. "Policy and Performance Links between LDC Debtors and Industrial Nations," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 16(2), pages 303-368.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:50. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Timo Laurmaa).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.