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Sterling's Past, Dollar's Future: Historical Perspectives on Reserve Currency Competition

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Barry Eichengreen

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Abstract

This paper provides an historical perspective on reserve currency competition and on the prospects of the dollar as an international currency. It questions the conventional wisdom that competition for reserve-currency status is a winner-take-all game, showing that several currencies have often shared this role in the past and arguing that innovations in financial markets make it even more likely that they will do so in the future. It suggests that the dollar and the euro are likely to share this position for the foreseeable future. Hopes that the yuan could become a major international currency 20 or even 40 years from now are highly premature.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11336.

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Date of creation: May 2005
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11336

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F0 - International Economics - - General

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Eichengreen, Barry, 1998. "The Euro as a Reserve Currency," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 483-506, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Kouri, Pentti J K, 1976. " The Exchange Rate and the Balance of Payments in the Short Run and in the Long Run: A Monetary Approach," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 78(2), pages 280-304.
  3. Pagano, Marco & von Thadden, Ernst-Ludwig, 2004. "The European Bond Markets Under EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 4779, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Barry Eichengreen, 2004. "Global Imbalances and the Lessons of Bretton Woods," NBER Working Papers 10497, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Michael D. Bordo & Christopher Meissner & Angela Redish, 2003. "How "Original Sin" was Overcome: The Evolution of External Debt Denominated in Domestic Currencies in the United States and the British Dominions," NBER Working Papers 9841, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2005. "International Financial Adjustment," International Finance 0505004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  7. George S. Tavlas, 1997. "The International Use of the US Dollar: An Optimum Currency Area Perspective," The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(6), pages 709-747, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Flandreau, Marc & Sussman, Nathan, 2004. "Old Sins: Exchange Rate Clauses and European Foreign Lending in the 19th Century," CEPR Discussion Papers 4248, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2003. "An Essay on the Revived Bretton Woods System," NBER Working Papers 9971, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Fishlow, Albert, 1985. "Lessons from the Past: Capital Markets during the 19th Century and the Interwar Period," International Organization, MIT Press, vol. 39(3), pages 383-439, Summer.
  11. Jason Furman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1998. "Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1998-2), pages 1-136. [Downloadable!]
  12. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2004. "Direct Investment, Rising Real Wages and the Absorption of Excess Labor in the Periphery," NBER Working Papers 10626, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Elias Papaioannou & Richard Portes & Gregorios Siourounis, 2006. "Optimal Currency Shares in International Reserves: The Impact of the Euro and the Prospects for the Dollar," NBER Working Papers 12333, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Prakash Kannan, 2007. "On the Welfare Benefits of an International Currency," IMF Working Papers 07/49, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter M. Garber, 2005. "Interest Rates, Exchange Rates and International Adjustment," NBER Working Papers 11771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Chinn, Menzie & Frankel, Jeffrey, 2005. "Will the Euro Eventually Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Reserve Currency?," Working Paper Series rwp05-064, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Chinn, Menzie & Frankel, Jeffrey, 2008. "The Euro May over the Next 15 Years Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Currency," Working Paper Series rwp08-016, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Pietro Alessandrini & Michele Fratianni, 2009. "International Monies, Special Drawing Rights, and Supernational Money," Working Papers 2009-03, Indiana University, Kelley School of Business, Department of Business Economics and Public Policy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Barry Eichengreen, 2008. "Should there be a coordinated response to the problem of global imbalances? Can there be one?," Working Papers 69, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs. [Downloadable!]
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