What Might the Next Emerging-Market Financial Crisis Look Like?
AbstractThis paper addresses the following question: If a financial crisis affecting a group of emerging economies were to take place sometime over the next three years, where would the crisis likely originate, how could it be transmitted to other economies, and which economies would be most affected by particular transmission or contagion mechanisms? A set of indicators is presented to gauge the vulnerability of individual emerging economies to various shocks, including a slowdown in import demand in both China and the United States, a fall in primary commodity prices, increased costs and lower availability of external financing, alternative patterns of exchange rate changes, and pressures operating on monetary and fiscal policies in emerging economies.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Peterson Institute for International Economics in its series Working Paper Series with number WP05-7.
Date of creation: Jul 2005
Date of revision:
emerging markets; financial crisis; China slowdown; US current account;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
- F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
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