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How Does U.S. Monetary Policy Influence Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets?

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  • Vivek Arora

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Martin Cerisola

    (International Monetary Fund)

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    Abstract

    This paper quantifies the impact of changes in U.S. monetary policy on sovereign bond spreads in emerging market countries. Specifically, the paper explores empirically how country risk, as proxied by sovereign bond spreads, is influenced by U.S. monetary policy, country-specific fundamentals, and conditions in global capital markets. While country-specific fundamentals are important in explaining fluctuations in country risk, the stance and predictability of U.S. monetary policy are also important for stabilizing capital flows and capital market conditions in emerging markets. Copyright 2002, International Monetary Fund

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Palgrave Macmillan in its journal IMF Staff Papers.

    Volume (Year): 48 (2001)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 3

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    Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:48:y:2002:i:3:p:3

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    1. Brian Aitken, 1998. "Have Institutional Investors Destabilized Emerging Markets?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 16(2), pages 173-184, 04.
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    3. Eichengreen, Barry & Mody, Ashoka, 1998. "Interest Rates in the North and Capital Flows to the South: Is There a Missing Link?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 35-57, October.
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    7. G. William Schwert, 1988. "Tests For Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0073, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Dooley, Michael & Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo & Kletzer, Kenneth & DEC, 1994. "Is the debt crisis history? Recent private capital inflows to developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1327, The World Bank.
    9. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "Inflows of Capital to Developing Countries in the 1990s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 123-139, Spring.
    10. Hsieh, David A & Miller, Merton H, 1990. " Margin Regulation and Stock Market Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 3-29, March.
    11. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 1998. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging-Market Debt: Fundamentals or Market Sentiment?," NBER Working Papers 6408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Sebastian Edwards & Raul Susmel, 2000. "Interest Rate Volatility and Contagion in Emerging Markets: Evidence from the 1990s," NBER Working Papers 7813, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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