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Determinants Of Spread And Creditworthiness For Emerging Market Sovereign Debt: A Panel Data Study

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Peter Rowland ()
José Luis Torres Trespalacios ()

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Abstract

This study uses a panel-data framework to identify the determinants of the spread over US Treasuries of emerging market sovereign issues as well as of the creditworthiness of the issuers, where the latter is represented by the Institutional Investor’s creditworthiness index. We use a sample of 16 emerging market economies, together with time series data for the period 1998 to 2002 when analysing the spread, and from 1987 to 2001 when analysing the creditworthiness. The results suggest that for both the spread and the creditworthiness, significant explanatory variables include the economic growth rate, the debt-to-GDP ratio, the reserves-to-GDP ratio, and the debt-to-exports ratio. In addition, the spread is also determined by the exports-to-GDP ratio, and the debt service to GDP, while the creditworthiness is influenced by the inflation rate and a default dummy variable.

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Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 002337.

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Length: 55
Date of creation: 31 Jul 2004
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Handle: RePEc:col:000094:002337

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    • Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1986. "The pure theory of country risk," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 481-513, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    • Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1991. "The Pure Theory of Country Risk," NBER Chapters, in: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 391-435 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  3. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1993. "“Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," MPRA Paper 7125, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1997. "I just Ran Four Million Regressions," Economics Working Papers 201, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Oct, pages 37-53. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Allen, Franklin, 1983. "Credit Rationing and Payment Incentives," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(4), pages 639-46, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Dooley, Michael & Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo & Kletzer, Kenneth, 1996. "Is the Debt Crisis History? Recent Private Capital Inflows to Developing Countries," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(1), pages 27-50, January.
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  10. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 1998. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging-Market Debt: Fundamentals or Market Sentiment?," NBER Working Papers 6408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Peter Rowland, 2004. "Determinants Of Spread , Credit Rating And Creditworthiness For Emerging Market Sovereign Debt: A Panel Data Study," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002336, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
  2. Elena Loukoianova & Cheng Hoon Lim & Samuel Malone & Dale F. Gray, 2008. "A Risk-Based Debt Sustainability Framework: Incorporating Balance Sheets and Uncertainty," IMF Working Papers 08/40, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Peter Rowland, . "Buyback of Colombian Sovereign Debt," Borradores de Economia 331, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
  4. Daniel Leigh, 2008. "Achieving a Soft Landing: The Role of Fiscal Policy," IMF Working Papers 08/69, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Peter Rowland, 2004. "The Colombian Sovereign Spread And Its Determinants," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003572, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
  6. Martín Grandes, 2007. "The Determinants of Sovereign Bond Spreads: Theory and Facts From Latin America," Cuadernos de Economía (Latin American Journal of Economics), Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 44(130), pages 151-181. [Downloadable!]
  7. Peter Rowland, 2005. "Buyback Of Colombian Sovereign Debt," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002073, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
  8. Peter Rowland, . "Determinants of Spread and Credit Ratings and Creditworthiness for Emerging Market Sovereign Debt: A Follow-Up Study Using Pooled Data Analysis," Borradores de Economia 296, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
  9. Amine Mati & Emanuele Baldacci & Sanjeev Gupta, 2008. "Is it (Still) Mostly Fiscal? Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 08/259, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  10. Ratha, Dilip & De, Prabal & Mohapatra, Sanket, 2007. "Shadow sovereign ratings for unrated developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4269, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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