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An Assessment Of The Relative Importance Of Real Interest Rates, Inflation, And Term Premiums In Determining The Prices Of Real And Nominal U.K. Bonds

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  • David G. Barr
  • Bahram Pesaran

Abstract

We use a vector autoregression (VAR) to decompose unanticipated bond returns into news about fundamentals (expected real interest and inflation rates) and expected risk premiums. This decomposition is applied to U.K. short- and long-maturity nominal bonds, and to U.K. index-linked bonds. We also examine the sources of relative conventional and real bond returns. The results suggest that for both bond types, real-rate news plays an insignificant role, and that even for “real” bonds inflation news is important. Both bonds are strongly influenced by news about future risk premiums, but these appear to reflect a common factor that has little influence on their relative returns. News about inflation dominates unanticipated relative returns, which appear to provide a reliable source of information about inflation expectations. © 1997 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Suggested Citation

  • David G. Barr & Bahram Pesaran, 2000. "An Assessment Of The Relative Importance Of Real Interest Rates, Inflation, And Term Premiums In Determining The Prices Of Real And Nominal U.K. Bonds," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(3), pages 362-366, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:79:y:2000:i:3:p:362-366
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bredin, Don & Hyde, Stuart & Reilly, Gerard O., 2010. "Monetary policy surprises and international bond markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 988-1002, October.
    2. Peter Rowland, 2004. "The Colombian Sovereign Spread and its Determinants," Borradores de Economia 315, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Peter Rowland & José Luis Torres Trespalacios, 2004. "Determinants Of Spread And Creditworthiness For Emerging Market Sovereign Debt: A Panel Data Study," Borradores de Economia 2337, Banco de la Republica.
    4. Barr, David G. & Priestley, Richard, 2004. "Expected returns, risk and the integration of international bond markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 71-97, February.
    5. Pamela Jervis, 2007. "Inflation Compensation and Its Components in Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 10(2), pages 27-56, August.
    6. Alexandros Kontonikas & Paulo Maio & Zivile Zekaite, 2016. "Monetary Policy and Corporate Bond Returns," Working Papers 2016_05, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    7. Andreas Reschreiter, 2010. "Indexed bonds and revisions of inflation expectations," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 537-554, October.
    8. Hong G. Min, 1998. "Determinants of emerging market bond spread : do economic fundamentals matter?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1899, The World Bank.
    9. Alexandros Kontonikas & Charles Nolan & Zivile Zekaite, 2015. "Always and Everywhere Inflation? Treasuries Variance Decomposition and the Impact of Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2015_17, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    10. Andreas Reschreiter, 2004. "Risk factors of inflation-indexed and conventional government bonds and the APT," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 79, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    11. Mauricio Larraín & Fernando Parro, 2006. "The Information Contained in Forward Rates Movements in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 386, Central Bank of Chile.
    12. Min, Hong-Ghi & Lee, Duk-Hee & Nam, Changi & Park, Myeong-Cheol & Nam, Sang-Ho, 2003. "Determinants of emerging-market bond spreads: Cross-country evidence," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 271-286, December.

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