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Indexed Bonds and Revisions of Inflation Expectations

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Author Info
Reschreiter, Andreas (Department of Economics and Finance, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna, Austria)

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Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of revisions in inflation expectations on the prices of UK inflation-indexed and conventional government bonds with a vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Downwards revisions of inflation expectations are associated with unexpected increases in the prices of conventional bonds, but the prices of indexed bonds are not significantly affected. This suggests that indexed bonds protect investors against inflation while nominal bonds are exposed to changing monetary conditions. This is consistent with the view that indexed bonds avoid the inflation risk premium of conventional bonds and reduce the government's long-run borrowing costs.

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File URL: http://www.ihs.ac.at/publications/eco/es-199.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function: First version, 2006
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Institute for Advanced Studies in its series Economics Series with number 199.

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Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ihs:ihsesp:199

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Related research
Keywords: Conventional and indexed bonds; Inflation; Macroeconomy; VAR;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
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    Other versions:
  4. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2004. "The term structure of real rates and expected inflation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. John Y. Campbell, 2000. "Asset Pricing at the Millennium," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1897, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. David Barr & John Campbell, . "Inflation, real interest rates and the bond market: a study of UK nominal and index-linked Government bond prices," CERF Discussion Paper Series 95-09, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
    Other versions:
  7. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1996. "A Scorecard for Indexed Government Data," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1758, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
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    Other versions:
  10. Robert J. Barro, 1995. "Inflation and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 5326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Andreas Reschreiter, 2004. "Risk factors of inflation-indexed and conventional government bonds and the APT," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 79, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  12. Reschreiter, Andreas, 2004. "Conditional funding costs of inflation-indexed and conventional government bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1299-1318, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Robert J. Shiller, 1996. "Why Do People Dislike Inflation?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1115, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Campbell, John Y & Ammer, John, 1993. " What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-37, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. John Y. Campbell & Luis M. Viceira, 1998. "Who Should Buy Long-Term Bonds?," NBER Working Papers 6801, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Lamont, Owen A., 2001. "Economic tracking portfolios," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 161-184, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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