Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Determinants of Spread and Creditworthiness for Emerging Market Sovereign Debt:A Panel Data Study

Contents:

Author Info

  • Peter Rowland

    ()

  • José Luis Torres

    ()

Abstract

This study uses a panel-data framework to identify the determinants of the spread over US Treasuries of emerging market sovereign issues as well as of the creditworthiness of the issuers,where the latter is represented by the Institutional Investor's creditworthiness index. We use a sample of 16 emerging market economies, together with time series data for the period 1998 to 2002 when analysing the spread, and from 1987 to 2001 when analysing the creditworthiness. The results suggest that for both the spread and the creditworthiness, significant explanatory variables include the economic growt rate, the debt-to-GDP ratio, the reserves-to-GDP ratio, and the debt-to-exports ratio. In addition, the spread is also determined by the exports-to-GDP ratio, and the debt service to GDP,while the creditworthiness is influenced by the inflation rate and a default dummy variable.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.banrep.gov.co/docum/ftp/borra295.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 295.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation:
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:295

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Cra 7 # 14-78 Piso 7
Phone: (57-1) 3431111
Fax: (57-1) 2841686
Email:
Web page: http://www.banrep.org/publicaciones/pub_borra.htm
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309, April.
  2. Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1991. "The Pure Theory of Country Risk," NBER Chapters, in: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 391-435 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1993. "“Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," MPRA Paper 7125, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1997. "I just ran four million regressions," Economics Working Papers 201, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  5. Dooley, Michael & Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo & Kletzer, Kenneth & DEC, 1994. "Is the debt crisis history? Recent private capital inflows to developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1327, The World Bank.
  6. Barbone, Luca & Forni, Lorenzo, 2001. "Market Based Debt Reduction Agreements: A Case Study on Mexican and Polish Brady Bonds," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(2), pages 115-26, April.
  7. Budina, Nina & Mantchev, Tzvetan, 2000. "Determinants of Bulgarian Brady bond prices - an empirical assessment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2277, The World Bank.
  8. Hong G. Min, 1998. "Determinants of emerging market bond spread : do economic fundamentals matter?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1899, The World Bank.
  9. Edwards, Sebastian, 1986. "The pricing of bonds and bank loans in international markets : An empirical analysis of developing countries' foreign borrowing," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 565-589, June.
  10. Julio Nogués & Martín Grandes, 2001. "COUNTRY RISK: Economic Policy, Contagion Effect or Political noise?," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 125-162, May.
  11. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impacts of sovereign credit ratings," Research Paper 9608, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  12. Allen, Franklin, 1983. "Credit Rationing and Payment Incentives," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(4), pages 639-46, October.
  13. Alan M. Taylor, 2003. "Foreign Capital in Latin America in the Nineteenth and Twentieth Centuries," NBER Working Papers 9580, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 1998. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging-Market Debt: Fundamentals or Market Sentiment?," NBER Working Papers 6408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. António Afonso, 2002. "Understanding the Determinants of Government Debt Ratings: Evidence for the Two Leading Agencies," Working Papers 2002/02, Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon..
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Laura Jaramillo, 2010. "Determinants of Investment Grade Status in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 10/117, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Peter Rowland, 2004. "Determinants Of Spread , Credit Rating And Creditworthiness For Emerging Market Sovereign Debt: A Panel Data Study," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002336, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  3. Peter Rowland, . "Determinants of Spread and Credit Ratings and Creditworthiness for Emerging Market Sovereign Debt: A Follow-Up Study Using Pooled Data Analysis," Borradores de Economia 296, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  4. Daniel Leigh, 2008. "Achieving a Soft Landing: The Role of Fiscal Policy," IMF Working Papers 08/69, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Peter Rowland, 2004. "The Colombian Sovereign Spread And Its Determinants," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003572, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  6. Jair Ojeda-Joya & José E. Gómez-González, 2012. "The Term-Structure of Sovereign Default Risk in Colombia and its Determinants," Borradores de Economia 709, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  7. Pierre L. Siklos, 2008. "Determinants of Emerging Market Spreads: Domestic, Global Factors, and Volatility," Working Papers 182008, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  8. Dale F. Gray & Elena Loukoianova & Samuel W. Malone & Cheng Hoon Lim, 2008. "A Risk-Based Debt Sustainability Framework: Incorporating Balance Sheets and Uncertainty," IMF Working Papers 08/40, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Martín Grandes, 2007. "The Determinants of Sovereign Bond Spreads: Theory and Facts From Latin America," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 44(130), pages 151-181.
  10. Sanjeev Gupta & Amine Mati & Emanuele Baldacci, 2008. "Is it (Still) Mostly Fiscal? Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 08/259, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Laura Jaramillo & Anke Weber, 2012. "Bond Yields in Emerging Economies: It Matters What State You Are In," IMF Working Papers 12/198, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Cheikh A. Gueye & Amadou N. R. Sy, 2010. "Beyond Aid: How Much Should African Countries Pay to Borrow?," IMF Working Papers 10/140, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Ratha, Dilip & De, Prabal K. & Mohapatra, Sanket, 2011. "Shadow Sovereign Ratings for Unrated Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 295-307, March.
  14. Peter Rowland, 2005. "Buyback Of Colombian Sovereign Debt," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002073, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  15. Peter Rowland, . "Buyback of Colombian Sovereign Debt," Borradores de Economia 331, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:295

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Camilo Millán).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.