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Is the Chinese growth miracle built to last?

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  • Prasad, Eswar S.

Abstract

Is the Chinese growth miracle - a remarkably high growth rate sustained for over two decades - likely to persist or are the seeds of its eventual demise contained in the policies that have boosted growth? For all its presumed flaws, the particular approach to macroeconomic and structural policies that has been adopted by the Chinese government has helped to deliver high productivity and output growth, along with a reasonable degree of macroeconomic stability. There comes a point, however, when the policy distortions needed to maintain this approach could generate imbalances, impose potentially large welfare costs, and themselves become a source of instability. The traditional risks faced by emerging market economies, especially those related to having an open capital account, do not loom large in the case of China. In the process of securing protection against external risks, however, Chinese policymakers may have increased the risks of internal instability. There are a number of factors that could trigger unfavorable economic dynamics that, even if they don't rise to the level of a crisis, could have serious adverse repercussions on growth and welfare. The flexibility and potency of macroeconomic tools to deal with such negative shocks is constrained by the panoply of policies that has supported growth so far.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal China Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 20 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 103-123

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Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:20:y:2009:i:1:p:103-123

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/chieco

Related research

Keywords: Exchange rate flexibility Capital account liberalization Growth model Macroeconomic policies Financial sector reforms;

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References

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  1. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2003. "International Financial Integration," CEPR Discussion Papers 3769, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Eswar S. Prasad & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2006. "Modernizing China's Growth Paradigm," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 331-336, May.
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  4. Richard Podpiera, 2006. "Progress in China's Banking Sector Reform: Has Bank Behavior Changed?," IMF Working Papers 06/71, International Monetary Fund.
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  16. Olivier Jeanne, 2007. "International Reserves in Emerging Market Countries: Too Much of a Good Thing?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(1), pages 1-80.
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  18. Eichengreen, Barry, 2004. "Chinese Currency Controversies," CEPR Discussion Papers 4375, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2009. "The evolution of the Sino-American Co-dependency: modelling a regime switch in a growth setting," Department of Economics Working Papers 0905, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
  2. Ajay Shah & Ila Patnaik, 2009. "The Difficulties of the Chinese and Indian Exchange Rate Regimes," Working Papers id:2321, eSocialSciences.
  3. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2010. "Global Rebalancing and the Future of the Sino-US Codependency," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 18(s1), pages 70-87.
  4. Bonatti, Luigi & Fracasso, Andrea, 2014. "Modeling the Transition Towards Renminbi's Full Convertibility: Implications for China’s Growth," MPRA Paper 54129, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Arjan de Haan, 2010. "A defining moment? China's social policy response to the financial crisis," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(6), pages 758-771.
  6. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2012. "The costs of rebalancing the China-US co-dependency," Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Sociali, Vita e Pensiero, Pubblicazioni dell'Universita' Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, vol. 120(1), pages 59-106.
  7. Christian Dreger & Yanqun Zhang, 2011. "The Chinese Impact on GDP Growth and Inflation in the Industrial Countries," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1151, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  8. Nader Nazmi & Julio Revilla, 2011. "Brazil’s growth performance: a comparative perspective to the Asian giants," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 7-24, April.
  9. Bonatti, Luigi & Fracasso, Andrea, 2013. "Hoarding of international reserves in China: Mercantilism, domestic consumption and US monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1044-1078.
  10. Russell Smyth & Ingrid Nielsen & Qingguo Zhai, 2009. "Personal Well-Being In Urban China," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series 01-09, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  11. Christian Dreger & Yanqun Zhang, 2013. "Does the economic integration of China affect growth and inflation in industrial countries?," FIW Working Paper series 116, FIW.
  12. Bonatti, Luigi & Fracasso, Andrea, 2013. "Regime switches in the Sino-American co-dependency: Growth and structural change in China," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-32.
  13. Nazmi, Nader & Revilla, Julio E., 2008. "Economic Efficiency and Growth: Evidence from Brazil, China, and India," Working Paper Series RP2008/86, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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