This paper investigates the economic and political conditions that are associated to the occurrence of a sovereign debt crisis. We use a new statistical approach (Classification and Regression Tree) that allows us to derive a collection of "rules of thumb" that help identify the typical characteristics of defaulters. We find that not all crises are equal: they differ depending on whether the government faces insolvency, illiquidity, or various macroeconomic risks. We also characterize the set of fundamentals that can be associated with a relatively "risk-free" zone. This classification is important for discussing appropriate policy options to prevent crises and improve response time and prediction.
Download Info
To download:
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the
proper application to
view it first. Information about this may be contained
in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read
the IDEAS help
page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS
site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 78 (2009) Issue (Month): 2 (July) Pages: 192-205 Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML
(with abstract),
plain text
(with abstract),
BibTeX,
RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite),
ReDIF
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
Eaton, Jonathan & Fernandez, Raquel, 1995.
"Sovereign debt,"
Handbook of International Economics,
in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 3, pages 2031-2077
Elsevier.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
Eaton, J. & Fernandez, R., 1995.
"Sovereign Debt,"
Papers
37, Boston University - Department of Economics.
Jonathan Eaton & Raquel Fernandez, 1995.
"Sovereign Debt,"
NBER Working Papers
5131, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth & Savastano, Miguel, 2003.
"Debt intolerance,"
MPRA Paper
13932, University Library of Munich, Germany.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions:
Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003.
"Debt Intolerance,"
NBER Working Papers
9908, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003.
"Debt Intolerance,"
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2003-1), pages 1-74.
[Downloadable!]
Cited by: (explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
Did you know? Citation analysis on IDEAS includes online papers that are freely accessible and whose text could be automatically analyzed, currently about 210000 papers.