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Can We Predict the Next Capital Account Crisis?

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  • Marcos Chamon
  • Paolo Manasse
  • Alessandro Prati

Abstract

This paper uses binary classification trees (BCTs) to predict capital account crises. BCTs successively compare candidate variables and thresholds to split the data into two subsamples, allowing for a large number of indicators to be considered and complex interactions to emerge in a way that standard regressions cannot easily replicate. We identify a robust leading indicator role for three variables (international reserves, current account balance, and short-term external debt) as well as a reserve cover measure that combines them. External indebtedness and domestic GDP growth forecasts are also important predictors of vulnerability. Out of sample, we were able to capture some of the main emerging market crises with relatively few false alarms but the overall out-of-sample performance of our forecasts was mixed. Global cyclical variables help explain vulnerability to crises but they are difficult to predict and, therefore, are of limited use for forecasting purposes. IMF Staff Papers (2007) 54, 270–305. doi:10.1057/palgrave.imfsp.9450012

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Palgrave Macmillan in its journal IMF Staff Papers.

Volume (Year): 54 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 270-305

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Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:54:y:2007:i:2:p:270-305

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References

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  1. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
  2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
  3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 1-74.
  4. Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank.
  5. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
  6. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 2004. "Managing Macroeconomic Crises," NBER Working Papers 10907, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48, February.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. P. Manasse & R. Savona & M. Vezzoli, 2013. "Rules of Thumb for Banking Crises in Emerging Markets," Working Papers wp872, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  2. Ravi Balakrishnan & Stephan Danninger & Selim Elekdag & Irina Tytell, 2011. "The Transmission of Financial Stress from Advanced to Emerging Economies," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 47(0), pages 40-68, May.
  3. Paolo Manasse & Nouriel Roubini, 2005. "'Rules of Thumb' for Sovereign Debt Crises," International Finance 0509003, EconWPA.
  4. Stephan Danninger & Irina Tytell & Ravi Balakrishnan & Selim Elekdag, 2009. "The Transmission of Financial Stress From Advanced to Emerging Economies," IMF Working Papers 09/133, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Stanley Watt & Donal McGettigan & Saade Chami, 2007. "Jordan's International Reserve Position," IMF Working Papers 07/103, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Juan José Echavarría & Andrés gonzález & Enrique López & Norberto Rodríguez, 2012. "Choques internacionales reales y financieros y su impacto sobre la economía colombiana," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 009884, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  7. Mauro Mecagni & Ruben Atoyan & David Hofman, 2009. "The Persistence of Capital Account Crises," IMF Working Papers 09/103, International Monetary Fund.
  8. E. Davis & Dilruba Karim & Iana Liadze, 2011. "Should multivariate early warning systems for banking crises pool across regions?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 147(4), pages 693-716, November.
  9. Duttagupta, Rupa & Cashin, Paul, 2011. "Anatomy of banking crises in developing and emerging market countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 354-376, March.
  10. Rupa Duttagupta & Paul Cashin, 2008. "The Anatomy of Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 08/93, International Monetary Fund.
  11. David Hofman & Ruben Atoyan & Dimitri Tzanninis & Mauro Mecagni, 2007. "The Duration of Capital Account Crises," IMF Working Papers 07/258, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Gabriela Dobrescu & Iva Petrova & Nazim Belhocine & Emanuele Baldacci, 2011. "Assessing Fiscal Stress," IMF Working Papers 11/100, International Monetary Fund.

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