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The Duration of Capital Account Crises—An Empirical Analysis

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  • Mr. David J Hofman
  • Mr. Ruben V Atoyan
  • Dimitri Tzanninis
  • Mr. Mauro Mecagni

Abstract

This paper examines the duration of capital account crises. We develop a new index to identify both the start and the end of these crises. Applying the index to a sample of 18 crisis episodes, we derive stylized facts on crisis duration and review the economic and financial circumstances that prevailed at the dusk of crises, a relatively unexplored area. We use the econometric technique of duration analysis to gauge the relative importance of various factors affecting the probability of exiting a crisis. We find that initial and external conditions are key determinants. But fiscal and monetary policies can also help shorten crisis duration.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. David J Hofman & Mr. Ruben V Atoyan & Dimitri Tzanninis & Mr. Mauro Mecagni, 2007. "The Duration of Capital Account Crises—An Empirical Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2007/258, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2007/258
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Calderón, César & Kubota, Megumi, 2013. "Sudden stops: Are global and local investors alike?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 122-142.
    2. Thanh Cong Nguyen & Vítor Castro & Justine Wood, 2022. "Political economy of financial crisis duration," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 192(3), pages 309-330, September.
    3. Wälti, Sébastien & Weder, Ghislaine, 2009. "Recovering from bond market distress: Good luck and good policy," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 36-50, March.

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