IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/oec/ecoaaa/865-en.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Episodes of Large Capital Inflows and the Likelihood of Banking and Currency Crises and Sudden Stops

Author

Listed:
  • Davide Furceri

    (OECD)

  • Stéphanie Guichard

    (OECD)

  • Elena Rusticelli

    (OECD)

Abstract

This paper provides an empirical investigation of the relationship between surges in capital inflows and the probability of subsequent banking, currency and balance-of-payment crises. Using a panel of developed and emerging economies from 1970 to 2007, it is shown that a large capital inflow episode increases substantially the probability of having a banking or a currency crisis in the two following years. The effect is especially large for the case of balance-of-payment crises. The paper also finds that the effect of large capital inflows is different depending on the type of flows characterising the episode. In particular, large capital inflows that are debt-driven significantly increase the probability of banking, currency and balance of payment crises, whereas if inflows are driven by equity portfolio investment or FDI there is a negligible effect. This means that structural reforms that modify the composition of capital flows towards a lower share of debt are likely to reduce the financial vulnerabilities to large capital inflows. At the same time, however, structural reforms may also increase the overall size of capital flows. Épisodes d'entrées massive de capitaux et risqué de crises bancaires et de changes et d'arrêt brutal du financement extérieur Ce document presente une etude empirique de la relation entre les fortes entrees de capitaux et la probabilite de crises bancaires, financiere ou de balance des paiements ulterieures. Les resultats obtenus sur un panel d'economies developpees et emergentes de 1970 a 2007 suggerent que les episodes de fortes entrees de capitaux ou ¡ìmannes¡í augmentent fortement la probabilite d'avoir une crise bancaire ou une crise de change dans les deux annees suivantes. L'effet est particulierement grand pour les crises de balance des paiements. Le document montre egalement que l'effet des mannes de capitaux est different selon le type de flux de capitaux qui les caracterisent. En particulier les mannes de dette augmentent de maniere tres significative la probabilite de crise bancaire, de change et de balance des paiements, alors que les mannes d.investissements de portefeuille en actions et de l'IDE ont un effet negligeable. Cela signifie que les reformes structurelles qui modifient la composition des flux de capitaux vers une plus faible part de la dette sont susceptibles de reduire la vulnerabilite financiere associee aux larges entrees de capitaux. Toutefois, les reformes structurelles risquent aussi d.augmenter le montant total the flux de capitaux.

Suggested Citation

  • Davide Furceri & Stéphanie Guichard & Elena Rusticelli, 2011. "Episodes of Large Capital Inflows and the Likelihood of Banking and Currency Crises and Sudden Stops," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 865, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:865-en
    DOI: 10.1787/5kgc9kpkslvk-en
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1787/5kgc9kpkslvk-en
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1787/5kgc9kpkslvk-en?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cole, Rebel A. & Gunther, Jeffery W., 1995. "Separating the likelihood and timing of bank failure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 1073-1089, September.
    2. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza, 2007. "Currency Mismatches, Debt Intolerance, and the Original Sin: Why They Are Not the Same and Why It Matters," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices, and Consequences, pages 121-170, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Bonfiglioli, Alessandra & Mendicino, Caterina, 2004. "Financial Liberalization, Banking Crises and Growth: Assessing the Links," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 567, Stockholm School of Economics.
    4. Hélène Rey & Philippe Martin, 2006. "Globalization and Emerging Markets: With or Without Crash?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1631-1651, December.
    5. Davide Furceri & Stéphanie Guichard & Elena Rusticelli, 2012. "Medium-Term Determinants Of International Investment Positions: The Role Of Structural Policies," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(02), pages 1-32.
    6. Barry Eichengreen & Poonam Gupta & Ashoka Mody, 2008. "Sudden Stops and IMF-Supported Programs," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Markets Volatility and Performance in Emerging Markets, pages 219-266, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2006. "What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 163-192, October.
    8. Agosin, Manuel R. & Huaita, Franklin, 2012. "Overreaction in capital flows to emerging markets: Booms and sudden stops," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1140-1155.
    9. Kose, M. Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar & Terrones, Marco E., 2007. "How Does Financial Globalization Affect Risk Sharing? Patterns and Channels," IZA Discussion Papers 2903, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/9261 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Glick,Reuven & Moreno,Ramon & Spiegel,Mark M. (ed.), 2001. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521800204.
    12. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    13. Reuven Glick & Xueyan Guo & Michael Hutchison, 2006. "Currency Crises, Capital-Account Liberalization, and Selection Bias," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 698-714, November.
    14. Reuven Glick & Ramon Moreno & Mark M. Spiegel, 2001. "Financial crises in emerging markets," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar.23.
    15. Edwards, Sebastian, 2007. "Capital controls, capital flow contractions, and macroeconomic vulnerability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 814-840, September.
    16. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 2002. "Does deposit insurance increase banking system stability? An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(7), pages 1373-1406, October.
    17. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2009. "Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(1), pages 9-62.
    18. Alfredo Pistelli & Jorge Selaive & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 2008. "Stocks, Flows, and Valuation Effects of Foreign Assets and Liabilities: Do They Matter?," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Kevin Cowan & Sebastián Edwards & Rodrigo O. Valdés & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt- (ed.),Current Account and External Financing, edition 1, volume 12, chapter 7, pages 237-277, Central Bank of Chile.
    19. Matutes, Carmen & Vives, Xavier, 2000. "Imperfect competition, risk taking, and regulation in banking," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 1-34, January.
    20. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 2004. "Competition and financial stability," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 453-486.
    21. Sebastian Edwards, 2004. "Financial Openness, Sudden Stops, and Current-Account Reversals," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 59-64, May.
    22. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    23. Ramkishen Rajan & Graham Bird, 2001. "Economic Globalisation," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 2(3), pages 1-18, July.
    24. Luis-Fernando Mejía & Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo, 2004. "On the empirics of Sudden Stops: the relevance of balance-sheet effects," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
    25. Barrell, Ray & Davis, E. Philip & Karim, Dilruba & Liadze, Iana, 2010. "Bank regulation, property prices and early warning systems for banking crises in OECD countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 2255-2264, September.
    26. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2000. "When Capital Inflows Come to a Sudden Stop: Consequences and Policy Options," MPRA Paper 6982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    27. Furceri, Davide & Karras, Georgios, 2007. "Country size and business cycle volatility: Scale really matters," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 424-434, December.
    28. Mr. Paolo Mauro & Mr. Torbjorn I. Becker, 2006. "Output Drops and the Shocks That Matter," IMF Working Papers 2006/172, International Monetary Fund.
    29. Mayer,Colin & Vives,Xavier (ed.), 1993. "Capital Markets and Financial Intermediation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521443975.
    30. Dani Rodrik, 1998. "Why Do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 997-1032, October.
    31. Cavallo, Eduardo A. & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2008. "Does openness to trade make countries more vulnerable to sudden stops, or less? Using gravity to establish causality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1430-1452, December.
    32. Cardarelli, Roberto & Elekdag, Selim & Kose, M. Ayhan, 2010. "Capital inflows: Macroeconomic implications and policy responses," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 333-356, December.
    33. Kevin C. Murdock & Thomas F. Hellmann & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2000. "Liberalization, Moral Hazard in Banking, and Prudential Regulation: Are Capital Requirements Enough?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(1), pages 147-165, March.
    34. Honohan,Patrick & Laeven,Luc (ed.), 2005. "Systemic Financial Crises," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521851855.
    35. Sebastian Edwards, 2007. "Capital Controls, Sudden Stops, and Current Account Reversals," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices, and Consequences, pages 73-120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/9261 is not listed on IDEAS
    37. Davide Furceri & Annabelle Mourougane, 2009. "Financial Crises: Past Lessons and Policy Implications," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 668, OECD Publishing.
    38. Julián A. Caballero, 2016. "Do Surges in International Capital Inflows Influence the Likelihood of Banking Crises?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(591), pages 281-316, March.
    39. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1985. "External Debt and Macroeconomic Performance in Latin America and East Asia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 16(2), pages 523-573.
    40. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1676-1706, August.
    41. Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Levine, Ross, 2006. "Bank concentration, competition, and crises: First results," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1581-1603, May.
    42. Zsolt Becsi & Ping Wang, 1997. "Financial development and growth," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 82(Q 4), pages 46-62.
    43. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
    44. Apanard P. Angkinand & Wanvimol Sawangngoenyuang & Clas Wihlborg, 2010. "Financial Liberalization and Banking Crises: A Cross-Country Analysis-super-," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 10(Financial), pages 263-292.
    45. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Davide Furceri & Stéphanie Guichard & Elena Rusticelli, 2012. "Episodes of Large Capital Inflows, Banking and Currency Crises, and Sudden Stops," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 1-35, April.
    2. Calderón, César & Kubota, Megumi, 2013. "Sudden stops: Are global and local investors alike?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 122-142.
    3. Julian Caballero, 2012. "Do Surges in International Capital Inflows Influence the Likelihood of Banking Crises? Cross-Country Evidence on Bonanzas in Capital Inflows and Bonanza-Boom- Bust Cycles," Research Department Publications 4775, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    4. M Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei, 2009. "Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(1), pages 8-62, April.
    5. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    6. Kose, M. Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar & Rogoff, Kenneth & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2010. "Financial Globalization and Economic Policies," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4283-4359, Elsevier.
    7. Hutchison, Michael M. & Noy, Ilan & Wang, Lidan, 2010. "Fiscal and monetary policies and the cost of sudden stops," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 973-987, October.
    8. M Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei, 2009. "Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(1), pages 8-62, April.
    9. Kauko, Karlo, 2014. "How to foresee banking crises? A survey of the empirical literature," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 289-308.
    10. Bonfiglioli, Alessandra, 2008. "Financial integration, productivity and capital accumulation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 337-355, December.
    11. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 16125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Glick, Reuven & Hutchison, Michael, 2011. "The illusive quest: Do international capital controls contribute to currency stability?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 59-70, January.
    13. Mahir Binici & Aytül Ganioglu, 2021. "Net external position, financial development, and banking crisis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1225-1251, September.
    14. Furceri, Davide & Guichard, Stéphanie & Rusticelli, Elena, 2012. "The effect of episodes of large capital inflows on domestic credit," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 325-344.
    15. Vivek Arora & Karl Habermeier & Jonathan D. Ostry & Rhoda Weeks-Brown, 2013. "La liberalización y el manejo de los flujos de capital: una visión institucional," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 15(28), pages 205-255, January-J.
    16. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Qureshi, Mahvash S., 2018. "Taming the Tide of Capital Flows: A Policy Guide," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262037165, December.
    17. Nguyen, Thanh Cong & Castro, Vítor & Wood, Justine, 2022. "A new comprehensive database of financial crises: Identification, frequency, and duration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    18. Joseph Joyce, 2011. "Financial Globalization and Banking Crises in Emerging Markets," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(5), pages 875-895, November.
    19. William R. Cline, 2010. "Financial Globalization, Economic Growth, and the Crisis of 2007-09," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 499, October.
    20. Thorsten Beck, 2007. "Bank Concentration and Fragility. Impact and Mechanics," NBER Chapters, in: The Risks of Financial Institutions, pages 196-231, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    arrêt brutal des entrées de capitaux; banking crisis; capital flows; crise bancaire; crise financière; financial crisis; flux de capitaux; sudden stops;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:865-en. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/edoecfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.